Published
December 1, 2023
Contact
Yassert A. Gonzalez |
Manager – Economics, Demographics & Research |
813-582-7356 |
[email protected]
Last updated
December 18, 2023
Every five years staff conducts a collaborative exercise which results in new long-range forecasts[1]. The final draft and all supporting documentation are found here: 2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts. For several months, we have been publishing a series of blogs on this subject. To see previous blogs where we discuss other jurisdictions within Hillsborough County, kindly go to our Demographic and Economic Data Page. This month we are reviewing 2050 projections for Unincorporated Hillsborough County which is our largest and most populous jurisdiction.
For Unincorporated Hillsborough County, we will be reviewing projections for the entire unincorporated area, Northwest, South Central, and the Rural Service Areas (See Figure 1). We will also be looking at projections for the 24 unincorporated planning areas (See Figure 2).
Figure 1. Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County.
Figure 2. Planning Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County.
As stated in an earlier article, from 2010 to 2020, Unincorporated Hillsborough County’s population grew 22% to 1,019,128 residents. By 2050, as seen in Table 1 and Figure 3, Unincorporated Hillsborough County’s population is expected to reach 1,412,898 people (393,770 new residents or 39% higher than 2020 population). Nearly 3 out of 4 newcomers will be moving to Unincorporated Hillsborough County. Figure 4 shows areas (in darker purple) with most new residents per acre through 2050.
Table 1. Population Projections by Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County
Areas | 2020 Population | 2050 Population | 2020-2050 Change | 2020-2050 Percent Change | Share of Growth Through 2050 |
Northwest Hillsborough Urban Service Area | 262,764 | 280,454 | 17,691 | 7% | 4% |
South Central Hillsborough Urban Service Area | 462,907 | 636,572 | 173,665 | 38% | 44% |
Rural Service Area | 293,458 | 495,872 | 202,415 | 69% | 51% |
Unincorporated Hillsborough County Total | 1,019,128 | 1,412,898 | 393,770 | 39% | 73% |
Figure 3. Current and Future Population for Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County
Figure 4. Kernel Density of New Population per Acre Through 2050 for Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County
Below we compare projected population growth through 2050 in the 24 unincorporated planning areas. As seen in Table 2 and Figures 5a-5d, in unincorporated planning areas, population is expected to increase from 773 new residents in Citrus Park Village to 91,000 new residents in remote Eastern Rural Hillsborough County. The average increase is expected to be 15,751 new residents. In terms of percentage growth, projected growth ranges from 5% in Town and Country to 285% in Balm. The average projected growth rate is 60%. By 2050, Seven (7) of the 24 unincorporated planning areas are expected to at least double their populations: Apollo, Balm, East Rural, South Rural, Sun City Center, Thonotosassa, and Wimauma. Figure 6 visually shows which unincorporated areas are expected to receive the most new residents per acre.
Table 2. Population Projections by Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County
Unincorporated Hillsborough County Planning Areas | 2020 Population | 2050 Population | 2020-2050 Change | 2020-2050 Percent Change | Share of Growth Through 2050 |
Apollo Beach | 32,424 | 69,124 | 36,700 | 113% | 9% |
Balm | 4,054 | 15,601 | 11,547 | 285% | 3% |
Boyette | 23,579 | 25,113 | 1,535 | 7% | 0% |
Brandon | 130,968 | 163,339 | 32,371 | 25% | 8% |
Citrus Park Village | 3,189 | 3,962 | 773 | 24% | 0% |
East Lake Orient Park | 31,040 | 48,086 | 17,046 | 55% | 4% |
East Rural | 64,615 | 155,859 | 91,244 | 141% | 23% |
Egypt Lake | 33,398 | 36,852 | 3,454 | 10% | 1% |
Gibsonton | 17,659 | 30,881 | 13,221 | 75% | 3% |
Greater Carrollwood Northdale | 107,152 | 115,899 | 8,747 | 8% | 2% |
Greater Palm River | 29,853 | 47,453 | 17,600 | 59% | 4% |
Keystone Odessa | 12,502 | 16,714 | 4,212 | 34% | 1% |
Little Manatee South | 7,326 | 11,637 | 4,311 | 59% | 1% |
Lutz | 42,015 | 50,980 | 8,966 | 21% | 2% |
Northwest Hillsborough | 80,702 | 87,403 | 6,701 | 8% | 2% |
Riverview | 125,410 | 165,139 | 39,729 | 32% | 10% |
Ruskin | 30,008 | 50,773 | 20,765 | 69% | 5% |
Seffner Mango | 27,210 | 41,983 | 14,773 | 54% | 4% |
South Rural | 4,034 | 8,951 | 4,917 | 122% | 1% |
Sun City Center | 30,943 | 32,717 | 1,774 | 6% | 0% |
Thonotosassa | 15,444 | 33,303 | 17,859 | 116% | 5% |
Town and Country | 53,718 | 56,321 | 2,603 | 5% | 1% |
University Area Community | 53,089 | 65,151 | 12,062 | 23% | 3% |
Valrico | 49,714 | 57,990 | 8,276 | 17% | 2% |
Wimauma | 9,083 | 21,669 | 12,586 | 139% | 3% |
Unincorporated Hillsborough County Total | 1,019,128 | 1,412,898 | 393,770 | 39% | 100% |
Figure 5a. Current and Future (2050) Population by Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County
Figure 5b. Current and Future (2050) Population by Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County
Figure 5c. Current and Future (2050) Population by Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County
Figure 5d. Current and Future (2050) Population by Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County
Figure 6. Kernel Density of New Population per Acre Through 2050 for Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County
In terms of employment, from 2010 to 2020, the Unincorporated Hillsborough County’s employment grew 34% to 446,157 jobs (See Demographic Profile). By 2050, as seen in Table 3 and Figure 7, Unincorporate Hillsborough County’s employment is expected to reach 637,671 jobs (191,515 new jobs or 43% higher than 2020 jobs). Unincorporated Hillsborough County is expected to attract 44% of all new jobs through 2050. Figure 8 shows areas (in darker green) where most new jobs are most likely to be located.
Table 3. Employment Projections by Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County
Areas | 2020 Employment | 2050 Employment | 2020-2050 Change | 2020-2050 Percent Change | Share of Growth Through 2050 |
Northwest Hillsborough Urban Service Area | 118,001 | 147,294 | 29,292 | 25% | 15% |
South Central Hillsborough Urban Service Area | 169,394 | 247,930 | 78,535 | 46% | 41% |
Rural Service Area | 158,761 | 242,448 | 83,687 | 53% | 44% |
Unincorporated Hillsborough County Total | 446,157 | 637,671 | 191,515 | 43% | 44% |
Figure 7. Current and Future Employment for Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County
Figure 8. Kernel Density of New Employment per Acre Through 2050 for Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County
Below we compare projected employment growth through 2050 in the 24 unincorporated planning areas. As seen in Table 4 and Figures 9a-9d, in unincorporated planning areas, employment is expected to increase from 118 new jobs in Boyette to 37,375 new jobs in Brandon. The average increase is expected to be 7,661 new jobs. In terms of percentage growth, projected growth ranges from 3% in Boyette to 154% in Balm. The average projected growth rate is 57%. By 2050, four (4) of the 24 unincorporated planning areas are expected to double or nearly double their employment: Apollo, Balm, Balm, Little Manatee South, Ruskin, Seffner Mango South Rural, and Wimauma. Figure 10 visually shows which unincorporated areas are expected to receive the most new jobs per acre.
Table 4. Employment Projections by Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County
Unincorporated Hillsborough County Planning Areas | 2020 Employment | 2050 Employment | 2020-2050 Change | 2020-2050 Percent Change | Share of Growth Through 2050 |
Apollo Beach | 5,338 | 12,292 | 6,955 | 130% | 4% |
Balm | 532 | 1,348 | 817 | 154% | 0% |
Boyette | 3,665 | 3,783 | 118 | 3% | 0% |
Brandon | 96,825 | 134,199 | 37,375 | 39% | 20% |
Citrus Park Village | 1,695 | 1,977 | 283 | 17% | 0% |
East Lake Orient Park | 51,240 | 77,565 | 26,325 | 51% | 14% |
East Rural | 15,456 | 24,549 | 9,092 | 59% | 5% |
Egypt Lake | 15,360 | 22,083 | 6,723 | 44% | 4% |
Gibsonton | 9,429 | 13,113 | 3,684 | 39% | 2% |
Greater Carrollwood Northdale | 44,414 | 54,132 | 9,718 | 22% | 5% |
Greater Palm River | 21,208 | 35,007 | 13,799 | 65% | 7% |
Keystone Odessa | 2,144 | 3,526 | 1,382 | 64% | 1% |
Little Manatee South | 1,171 | 2,279 | 1,108 | 95% | 1% |
Lutz | 10,533 | 12,491 | 1,958 | 19% | 1% |
Northwest Hillsborough | 29,017 | 35,449 | 6,433 | 22% | 3% |
Riverview | 28,520 | 47,366 | 18,846 | 66% | 10% |
Ruskin | 7,384 | 12,936 | 5,553 | 75% | 3% |
Seffner Mango | 8,803 | 16,493 | 7,690 | 87% | 4% |
South Rural | 1,745 | 3,687 | 1,942 | 111% | 1% |
Sun City Center | 6,089 | 7,596 | 1,507 | 25% | 1% |
Thonotosassa | 7,249 | 9,298 | 2,049 | 28% | 1% |
Town and Country | 44,331 | 58,463 | 14,132 | 32% | 7% |
University Area Community | 25,492 | 35,518 | 10,026 | 39% | 5% |
Valrico | 6,176 | 7,760 | 1,584 | 26% | 1% |
Wimauma | 2,344 | 4,760 | 2,416 | 103% | 1% |
Unincorporated Hillsborough County Total | 446,157 | 637,671 | 191,515 | 43% | 100% |
Figure 9a. Current and Future Employment for Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County
Figure 9b. Current and Future Employment for Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County
Figure 9c. Current and Future Employment for Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County
Figure 9d. Current and Future Employment for Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County
Figure 10. Kernel Density of New Employment per Acre Through 2050 for Unincorporated Areas in Hillsborough County
To conclude, Unincorporated Hillsborough County is our largest and most populous jurisdiction. It is expected to attract the most new residents through 2050 (393,770 new residents or 39% higher than 2020 population) . Moreover, only Tampa is expected to attract more new jobs. By 2050, we expect 191,515 new jobs (43% higher than 2020 jobs). Within Unincorporated Hillsborough County, by 2050, seven (7) of the 24 unincorporated planning areas are expected to at least double their populations: Apollo, Balm, East Rural, South Rural, Sun City Center, Thonotosassa, and Wimauma. Simultaneously, four (4) of the 24 unincorporated planning areas are expected to double or nearly double their employment: Apollo, Balm, Balm, Little Manatee South, Ruskin, Seffner Mango South Rural, and Wimauma. For more technical information: 2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts.
[1] The initial draft was based BEBR’s projections published in 2022. Link: https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/projections_2022.pdf