Published
October 3, 2023
Contact
Yassert A. Gonzalez
Manager – Economics, Demographics & Research
813-582-7356 (o)
[email protected]
planhillsborough.org
Last updated
November 30, 2023
Every five years staff conducts a collaborative exercise which results in new long-range forecasts[1]. The final draft and all supporting documentation are found here: 2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts. In the next several months, we are going to be publishing a series of articles on this subject. See previous articles here. This month we are reviewing 2050 projections for the City of Tampa.
For Tampa, we will be reviewing projections for the entire City of Tampa and the five planning districts within the city: Central Tampa, New Tampa, South Tampa, USF Institutional, and Westshore (See Figure 1).
Figure 1. City of Tampa’s Five Planning Districts
As stated in an earlier article, from 2010 to 2020 the Tampa’s population grew 17% to 392,953 residents. By 2050, as seen in Table 1 and Figures 2 and 3, Tampa’s population is expected to reach 493,236 people (100,283 new residents or 26% higher than 2020 population). As also explained in a previous article, nearly in 1 in 5 newcomers to Hillsborough County will be moving to Tampa. Nearly half of new residents will be moving to the Central Planning District. South Tampa and the USF area are expected to attract 42% of new residents. Figure 4 shows areas (in darker purple) with most new residents per acre through 2050.
Table 1. Population Projections by Tampa Planning District
Tampa Planning Districts | 2020 Population | 2050 Population | 2020-2050 Change | 2020-2050 Percent Change | Share of New Population Through 2050 |
Central Tampa | 149,496 | 197,525 | 48,028 | 32% | 48% |
New Tampa | 53,888 | 59,370 | 5,482 | 10% | 5% |
South Tampa | 82,545 | 104,399 | 21,854 | 26% | 22% |
USF Institutional | 93,519 | 113,962 | 20,443 | 22% | 20% |
Westshore TIA | 13,505 | 17,980 | 4,475 | 33% | 4% |
Tampa Total | 392,953 | 493,236 | 100,283 | 26% | 19% |
Figure 2. Current and Future Population for Three of Five Tampa Planning Districts and Tampa Total
Figure 3. Current and Future Population for Two of Five Tampa Planning Districts
Figure 4. Kernel Density of New Population per Acre Through 2050 for City of Tampa
In terms of employment, from 2010 to 2020 the Tampa’s employment grew 34% to 457,993 jobs (See Demographic Profile). By 2050, as seen in Table 2 and Figures 5 and 6, Tampa’s employment is expected to reach 652,017 jobs (194,025 new jobs or 42% higher than 2020 jobs). Tampa is expected to attract 45% of all new jobs in Hillsborough County through 2050. Central Tampa and the USF area are projected to attract 2 out of three jobs coming to Tampa. Figure 7 shows areas (in darker green) where most new jobs are most likely to be located.
Table 2. Employment Projections by Tampa Planning District
Tampa Planning Districts | 2020 Employment | 2050 Employment | 2020-2050 Change | 2020-2050 Percent Change | Share of Growth Through 2050 |
Central Tampa | 172,880 | 265,441 | 92,561 | 54% | 48% |
New Tampa | 25,218 | 28,572 | 3,355 | 13% | 2% |
South Tampa | 72,874 | 97,206 | 24,331 | 33% | 13% |
USF Institutional | 70,663 | 109,142 | 38,479 | 54% | 20% |
Westshore TIA | 116,357 | 151,655 | 35,298 | 30% | 18% |
Total | 457,993 | 652,017 | 194,025 | 42% | 45% |
Figure 5. Current and Future Employment for Three of Five Tampa Planning Districts and Tampa Total
Figure 6. Current and Future Employment for Two of Five Tampa Planning Districts
Figure 7. Kernel Density of New Employment per Acre Through 2050 for City of Tampa
To conclude, Tampa is expected to attract 19% of newcomers and 45% of new jobs through 2050. Within Tampa, the Central Planning District is expected to receive nearly half of these newcomers and new jobs. For more information: 2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts.
[1] The initial draft was based BEBR’s projections published in 2022. Link: https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/projections_2022.pdf