By 2050, Tampa to attract 100K new residents

Every five years staff conducts a collaborative exercise which results in new long-range forecasts[1]. The final draft and all supporting documentation are found here: 2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts.  In the next several months, we are going to be publishing a series of articles on this subject.  See previous articles here.  This month we are reviewing 2050 projections for the City of Tampa.

For Tampa, we will be reviewing projections for the entire City of Tampa and the five planning districts within the city:  Central Tampa, New Tampa, South Tampa, USF Institutional, and Westshore (See Figure 1).

Figure 1.  City of Tampa’s Five Planning Districts

As stated in an earlier article, from 2010 to 2020 the Tampa’s population grew 17% to 392,953 residents. By 2050, as seen in Table 1 and Figures 2 and 3, Tampa’s population is expected to reach 493,236 people (100,283 new residents or 26% higher than 2020 population).  As also explained in a previous article, nearly in 1 in 5 newcomers to Hillsborough County will be moving to Tampa.  Nearly half of new residents will be moving to the Central Planning District. South Tampa and the USF area are expected to attract 42% of new residents. Figure 4 shows areas (in darker purple) with most new residents per acre through 2050.

Table 1.  Population Projections by Tampa Planning District

Tampa Planning Districts	2020 Population	2050 Population	2020-2050 Change	2020-2050 Percent Change	Share of New Population Through 2050
Central Tampa	149,496	197,525	48,028	32%	48%
New Tampa	53,888	59,370	5,482	10%	5%
South Tampa	82,545	104,399	21,854	26%	22%
USF Institutional	93,519	113,962	20,443	22%	20%
Westshore TIA	13,505	17,980	4,475	33%	4%
Tampa Total	392,953	493,236	100,283	26%	19%

Figure 2.  Current and Future Population for Three of Five Tampa Planning Districts and Tampa Total

Figure 3.  Current and Future Population for Two of Five Tampa Planning Districts

Figure 4.  Kernel Density of New Population per Acre Through 2050 for City of Tampa

In terms of employment, from 2010 to 2020 the Tampa’s employment grew 34% to 457,993 jobs (See Demographic Profile). By 2050, as seen in Table 2 and Figures 5 and 6, Tampa’s employment is expected to reach 652,017 jobs (194,025 new jobs or 42% higher than 2020 jobs). Tampa is expected to attract 45% of all new jobs in Hillsborough County through 2050. Central Tampa and the USF area are projected to attract 2 out of three jobs coming to Tampa.  Figure 7 shows areas (in darker green) where most new jobs are most likely to be located.

Table 2.  Employment Projections by Tampa Planning District

Tampa Planning Districts	2020 Employment	2050 Employment	2020-2050 Change	2020-2050 Percent Change	Share of Growth Through 2050
Central Tampa	172,880	265,441	92,561	54%	48%
New Tampa	25,218	28,572	3,355	13%	2%
South Tampa	72,874	97,206	24,331	33%	13%
USF Institutional	70,663	109,142	38,479	54%	20%
Westshore TIA	116,357	151,655	35,298	30%	18%
Total	457,993	652,017	194,025	42%	45%

Figure 5.  Current and Future Employment for Three of Five Tampa Planning Districts and Tampa Total

Figure 6.  Current and Future Employment for Two of Five Tampa Planning Districts

Figure 7.  Kernel Density of New Employment per Acre Through 2050 for City of Tampa

To conclude, Tampa is expected to attract 19% of newcomers and 45% of new jobs through 2050. Within Tampa, the Central Planning District is expected to receive nearly half of these newcomers and new jobs.  For more information:  2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts.

---

[1] The initial draft was based BEBR’s projections published in 2022.  Link:  https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/projections_2022.pdf