By 2050, 2 million residents and 1.4 million jobs in Hillsborough County

Every five years staff conducts a collaboratively exercise which results in new long-range forecasts. Land use planners from all jurisdictions were invited to comment on the initial draft . The final draft and all supporting documentation are found here: 2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts. In the next several months, we are going to be publishing a series of articles on this subject here. This month we are reviewing countywide projections for Hillsborough County.

As stated in an earlier article, from 2010 to 2020 the county’s population grew 20% to 1.5 million residents. By 2050, as seen in Figure 1, planners expect the county’s population to exceed 2 million people (538,535 new residents or 36% higher than 2020 population) and jobs to reach 1.4 million (432,914 new jobs or 45% higher than 2020 jobs).

Figure 1. Final 2050 Planning Population and Employment Projections for Hillsborough County

Although it would only attract 7% of the new residents, Plant City’s population is expected nearly double through 2050 (36,831 new residents or 92% higher than 2020 population). Meanwhile, Tampa is expected to attract one in five new residents through 2050 (100,283 persons or 26% higher than 2020). Nonetheless, the lion’s share of new residents is expected to move to Unincorporated Hillsborough County (393,770 new residents or 39% higher than 2020). See Table 1 and Figures 2a and 2b below.

Table 1. 2020 Population Estimate and 2050 Planning Projection by Jurisdiction.

Figure 2a. 2020 Population Estimate and New Population Through 2050 for Plant City and Temple Terrace

Figure 2b. 2020 Population Estimate and New Population Through 2050 for Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County

In terms of jobs, from 2010 to2020 the jobs grew from 717,204 to 959,387 jobs (34% increase). By 2050, planners expect the county’s population to reach 1.4 million jobs (432,914 new jobs or 45% higher than 2020 jobs). Jobs in Plant City and Temple Terrace are projected to grow the fastest. Plant City’s jobs are expected to more than double through 2050 (35,626 new jobs or 105% higher than 2020 jobs). Temple Terrace is expected to add 11,748 new jobs through 2050 (55% higher than 2020). Notwithstanding, Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County are still expected to attract most new jobs coming to this county through 2050 (89%). See Table 2 and Figures 3a and 3b below.

Table 2. 2020 Employment Estimate and 2050 Planning Projection by Jurisdiction.

Figure 3a. 2020 Employment Estimate and New Employment Through 2050 for Plant City and Temple Terrace

Figure 3b. 2020 Employment Estimate and New Employment Through 2050 for Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County

There are 58 ZIP Codes wholly or partially inside Hillsborough County. The 11 fastest growing ZIP Codes are expected to attract an average of 24,617 new residents through 2050 (125% average 2020-2050 growth). Projected new residents range from 13,885 new residents in ZIP Code 33534 (Gibsonton/Riverview) to 36,779 new residents in ZIP Code 33619 (Greater Palm River). See Table 3 and Figures 4 and 5 below for details.

Table 3. 2020 Population Estimate and 2050 Planning Projection for 11 Fastest Growing ZIP Codes.

Figure 4. 2020 Population Estimate and New Population Through 2050 for Fastest Growing ZIP Codes

Figure 5. Hillsborough County ZIP Codes Expected to Attract the Largest Number of New Residents Through 2050

In terms of employment, the 11 fastest growing ZIP Codes are expected to attract an average of 10,253 new jobs through 2050 (111% average 2020-2050 growth). Projected new jobs range from 246 jobs in ZIP Code 33810 (NE Hillsborough County) to 25,819 jobs in ZIP Code 33605 (Ybor City/Palmetto Beach). See Table 4 and Figures 6 and 7 below for details.

Table 4. 2020 Employment Estimate and 2050 Planning Projection for 11 Fastest Growing ZIP Codes.

Figure 6. 2020 Population Estimate and New Population Through 2050 for Fastest Growing ZIP Codes

Figure 7. Hillsborough County ZIP Codes Expected to Attract the Largest Number of New Jobs Through 2050

To conclude, planners expect population and job growth in Hillsborough County to remain strong through 2050. The county is expected to add 538,535 new residents (36% increase from 2020) and 432,914 new jobs (45% increase from 2020). For more information: 2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts.