By 2050, unincorporated Hillsborough County to have 39% more residents and 43% more Jobs

Every five years staff conducts a collaborative exercise which results in new long-range forecasts[1]. The final draft and all supporting documentation are found here: 2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts.  For several months, we have been publishing a series of blogs on this subject.  To see previous blogs where we discuss other jurisdictions within Hillsborough County, kindly go to our Demographic and Economic Data Page.  This month we are reviewing 2050 projections for Unincorporated Hillsborough County which is our largest and most populous jurisdiction.

For Unincorporated Hillsborough County, we will be reviewing projections for the entire unincorporated area, Northwest, South Central, and the Rural Service Areas (See Figure 1).  We will also be looking at projections for the 24 unincorporated planning areas (See Figure 2).

Figure 1.  Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County.

Figure 2.  Planning Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County.

As stated in an earlier article, from 2010 to 2020, Unincorporated Hillsborough County’s population grew 22% to 1,019,128 residents. By 2050, as seen in Table 1 and Figure 3, Unincorporated Hillsborough County’s population is expected to reach 1,412,898 people (393,770 new residents or 39% higher than 2020 population).  Nearly 3 out of 4 newcomers will be moving to Unincorporated Hillsborough County.  Figure 4 shows areas (in darker purple) with most new residents per acre through 2050.

Table 1.  Population Projections by Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County

Areas	2020 Population	2050 Population	2020-2050 Change	2020-2050 Percent Change	Share of Growth Through 2050
Northwest Hillsborough Urban Service Area	262,764	280,454	17,691	7%	4%
South Central Hillsborough Urban Service Area	462,907	636,572	173,665	38%	44%
Rural Service Area	293,458	495,872	202,415	69%	51%
Unincorporated Hillsborough County Total	1,019,128	1,412,898	393,770	39%	73%

Figure 3.  Current and Future Population for Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County

Figure 4.  Kernel Density of New Population per Acre Through 2050 for Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County

Below we compare projected population growth through 2050 in the 24 unincorporated planning areas.  As seen in Table 2 and Figures 5a-5d, in unincorporated planning areas, population is expected to increase from 773 new residents in Citrus Park Village to 91,000 new residents in remote Eastern Rural Hillsborough County. The average increase is expected to be 15,751 new residents.  In terms of percentage growth, projected growth ranges from 5% in Town and Country to 285% in Balm.  The average projected growth rate is 60%. By 2050, Seven (7) of the 24 unincorporated planning areas are expected to at least double their populations:  Apollo, Balm, East Rural, South Rural, Sun City Center, Thonotosassa, and Wimauma. Figure 6 visually shows which unincorporated areas are expected to receive the most new residents per acre.

Table 2. Population Projections by Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County

Unincorporated Hillsborough County Planning Areas	2020 Population	2050 Population	2020-2050 Change	2020-2050 Percent Change	Share of Growth Through 2050
Apollo Beach	32,424	69,124	36,700	113%	9%
Balm	4,054	15,601	11,547	285%	3%
Boyette	23,579	25,113	1,535	7%	0%
Brandon	130,968	163,339	32,371	25%	8%
Citrus Park Village	3,189	3,962	773	24%	0%
East Lake Orient Park	31,040	48,086	17,046	55%	4%
East Rural	64,615	155,859	91,244	141%	23%
Egypt Lake	33,398	36,852	3,454	10%	1%
Gibsonton	17,659	30,881	13,221	75%	3%
Greater Carrollwood Northdale	107,152	115,899	8,747	8%	2%
Greater Palm River	29,853	47,453	17,600	59%	4%
Keystone Odessa	12,502	16,714	4,212	34%	1%
Little Manatee South	7,326	11,637	4,311	59%	1%
Lutz	42,015	50,980	8,966	21%	2%
Northwest Hillsborough	80,702	87,403	6,701	8%	2%
Riverview	125,410	165,139	39,729	32%	10%
Ruskin	30,008	50,773	20,765	69%	5%
Seffner Mango	27,210	41,983	14,773	54%	4%
South Rural	4,034	8,951	4,917	122%	1%
Sun City Center	30,943	32,717	1,774	6%	0%
Thonotosassa	15,444	33,303	17,859	116%	5%
Town and Country	53,718	56,321	2,603	5%	1%
University Area Community	53,089	65,151	12,062	23%	3%
Valrico	49,714	57,990	8,276	17%	2%
Wimauma	9,083	21,669	12,586	139%	3%
Unincorporated Hillsborough County Total	1,019,128	1,412,898	393,770	39%	100%

Figure 5a. Current and Future (2050) Population by Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County

Figure 5b. Current and Future (2050) Population by Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County

Figure 5c. Current and Future (2050) Population by Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County

Figure 5d. Current and Future (2050) Population by Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County

Figure 6.  Kernel Density of New Population per Acre Through 2050 for Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County

In terms of employment, from 2010 to 2020, the Unincorporated Hillsborough County’s employment grew 34% to 446,157 jobs (See Demographic Profile). By 2050, as seen in Table 3 and Figure 7, Unincorporate Hillsborough County’s employment is expected to reach 637,671 jobs (191,515 new jobs or 43% higher than 2020 jobs). Unincorporated Hillsborough County is expected to attract 44% of all new jobs through 2050.  Figure 8 shows areas (in darker green) where most new jobs are most likely to be located.

Table 3.  Employment Projections by Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County

Areas	2020 Employment	2050 Employment	2020-2050 Change	2020-2050 Percent Change	Share of Growth Through 2050
Northwest Hillsborough Urban Service Area	118,001	147,294	29,292	25%	15%
South Central Hillsborough Urban Service Area	169,394	247,930	78,535	46%	41%
Rural Service Area	158,761	242,448	83,687	53%	44%
Unincorporated Hillsborough County Total	446,157	637,671	191,515	43%	44%

Figure 7.  Current and Future Employment for Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County

Figure 8.  Kernel Density of New Employment per Acre Through 2050 for Utility Service Areas in Unincorporated Hillsborough County

Below we compare projected employment growth through 2050 in the 24 unincorporated planning areas.  As seen in Table 4 and Figures 9a-9d, in unincorporated planning areas, employment is expected to increase from 118 new jobs in Boyette to 37,375 new jobs in Brandon. The average increase is expected to be 7,661 new jobs.  In terms of percentage growth, projected growth ranges from 3% in Boyette to 154% in Balm.  The average projected growth rate is 57%. By 2050, four (4) of the 24 unincorporated planning areas are expected to double or nearly double their employment:  Apollo, Balm, Balm, Little Manatee South, Ruskin, Seffner Mango South Rural, and Wimauma. Figure 10 visually shows which unincorporated areas are expected to receive the most new jobs per acre.

Table 4. Employment Projections by Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County

Unincorporated Hillsborough County Planning Areas	2020 Employment	2050 Employment	2020-2050 Change	2020-2050 Percent Change	Share of Growth Through 2050
Apollo Beach	5,338	12,292	6,955	130%	4%
Balm	532	1,348	817	154%	0%
Boyette	3,665	3,783	118	3%	0%
Brandon	96,825	134,199	37,375	39%	20%
Citrus Park Village	1,695	1,977	283	17%	0%
East Lake Orient Park	51,240	77,565	26,325	51%	14%
East Rural	15,456	24,549	9,092	59%	5%
Egypt Lake	15,360	22,083	6,723	44%	4%
Gibsonton	9,429	13,113	3,684	39%	2%
Greater Carrollwood Northdale	44,414	54,132	9,718	22%	5%
Greater Palm River	21,208	35,007	13,799	65%	7%
Keystone Odessa	2,144	3,526	1,382	64%	1%
Little Manatee South	1,171	2,279	1,108	95%	1%
Lutz	10,533	12,491	1,958	19%	1%
Northwest Hillsborough	29,017	35,449	6,433	22%	3%
Riverview	28,520	47,366	18,846	66%	10%
Ruskin	7,384	12,936	5,553	75%	3%
Seffner Mango	8,803	16,493	7,690	87%	4%
South Rural	1,745	3,687	1,942	111%	1%
Sun City Center	6,089	7,596	1,507	25%	1%
Thonotosassa	7,249	9,298	2,049	28%	1%
Town and Country	44,331	58,463	14,132	32%	7%
University Area Community	25,492	35,518	10,026	39%	5%
Valrico	6,176	7,760	1,584	26%	1%
Wimauma	2,344	4,760	2,416	103%	1%
Unincorporated Hillsborough County Total	446,157	637,671	191,515	43%	100%

Figure 9a.  Current and Future Employment for Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County

Figure 9b.  Current and Future Employment for Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County

Figure 9c.  Current and Future Employment for Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County

Figure 9d.  Current and Future Employment for Unincorporated Planning Areas in Hillsborough County

Figure 10.  Kernel Density of New Employment per Acre Through 2050 for Unincorporated Areas in Hillsborough County

To conclude, Unincorporated Hillsborough County is our largest and most populous jurisdiction. It is expected to attract the most new residents through 2050 (393,770 new residents or 39% higher than 2020 population) . Moreover, only Tampa is expected to attract more new jobs. By 2050, we expect 191,515 new jobs (43% higher than 2020 jobs). Within Unincorporated Hillsborough County, by 2050, seven (7) of the 24 unincorporated planning areas are expected to at least double their populations:  Apollo, Balm, East Rural, South Rural, Sun City Center, Thonotosassa, and Wimauma.  Simultaneously, four (4) of the 24 unincorporated planning areas are expected to double or nearly double their employment:  Apollo, Balm, Balm, Little Manatee South, Ruskin, Seffner Mango South Rural, and Wimauma. For more technical information:  2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts.

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[1] The initial draft was based BEBR’s projections published in 2022.  Link:  https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/projections_2022.pdf