November 1, 2023
Yassert A. Gonzalez Manager – Economics, Demographics & Research 813-582-7356 [email protected]
November 15, 2023
Every five years staff conducts a collaboratively exercise which results in new long-range forecasts. Land use planners from all jurisdictions were invited to comment on the intial draft. The final draft and all supporting documentation are found here: 2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts. This month we are reviewing 2050 projections for the City of Temple Terrace. This the fourth in a series. Previous months’ articles are found here.
For Temple Terrace, we will be reviewing projections for the entire City of Temple Terrace and two ZIP Codes partially within: 33617 and 33637 (See Figure 1).
Figure 1. Temple Terrace and ZIP Codes 33617 and 33637 partially within
As stated in an earlier article, from 2010 to 2020 the Temple Terrace’s population grew 9% to 26,832 residents. By 2050, as seen in Table 1 and Figure 2, Temple Terrace’s population is expected to reach 34,483 people (7,651 new residents or 29% higher than 2020 population). As also seen in a previous article, nearly 1% of all new residents to Hillsborough County are expected to move to Temple Terrace. In terms of growth trends within ZIP Codes, most of new residents are moving ZIP Code 33637 (which straddles Morris Bridge Road). Over half of the Temple Terrace’s residents live on ZIP Code 33617 (which straddles 56th Street). Although ZIP Code 33637 will grow fastest through 2050, ZIP Code 33617 will still be the most populous. The population difference in the ZIP Codes should be much narrower.
As seen in Table 1, ZIP Codes 33617 and 33637 are expected to attract 38% and 42% of new residents, respectively. Figure 3 shows areas (in darker purple) with most new residents per acre through 2050.
Table 1. Population Projections by ZIP Codes partially within Temple Terrace
|Area||2020 Population||2050 Population||2020-2050 Change||2020-2050 Percent Change||Share of New Population Through 2050|
|Temple Terrace Total||26,832||34,483||7,651||29%||1%|
Figure 2. Current and Future Population for ZIP Codes partially within Temple Terrace
Figure 3. Kernel Density of New Population per Acre Through 2050 for Temple Terrace
In terms of employment, from 2010 to 2020 the Temple Terrace’s employment grew 25% to 21,299 jobs (See Demographic Profile). By 2050, as seen in Table 2 and Figure 4, Temple Terrace’s employment is expected to reach 33,047 jobs (11,748 new jobs or 55% higher than 2020 jobs). Temple Terrace is expected to attract only 3% of all new jobs in Hillsborough County through 2050. In terms of jobs growth within each ZIP Code, most jobs in Temple Terrace are projected to remain in ZIP Code 33637 (60% of 2020 jobs and 61% of projected 2050 jobs). Figure 5 shows areas (in darker green) with most new jobs per acre through 2050.
Table 2. Employment Projections by ZIP Codes partially within Temple Terrace
|Area||2020 Employment||2050 Employment||2020-2050 Change||2020-2050 Percent Change||Share of New Employment Through 2050|
|Temple Terrace Total||21,299||33,047||11,748||55%||3%|
Figure 4. Current and Future Employment for ZIP Codes partially within Temple Terrace
Figure 5. Kernel Density of New Employment per Acre Through 2050 for Temple Terrace
To conclude, population and jobs in Temple Terrace are expected to grow 29% and 55%, respetively, through 2050. This is the second fastest job growth in Hillsborough County. The city is expected to attract 1% of the newcomers and 3% of new jobs. For more information: 2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts.
 The initial draft was based BEBR’s projections published in 2022. Link: https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/projections_2022.pdf