October 7, 2021
Yassert A. Gonzalez Manager – Economics, Demographics & Research 813-582-7356 (o) [email protected] planhillsborough.org
July 17, 2023
From 2010-2020, the Hillsborough County’s population grew 20% to 1.5 million residents[i]. At that time, we also said that we were excitedly waiting for Census 2020. Back in August, the Census Bureau released its first batch of data. Data releases will continue through 2022. Since this data is at the Census block level, we can look at population dynamics in small areas (e.g., ZIP Codes).
There are 58 ZIP Codes wholly or partially inside Hillsborough County. From 2010-2020, population growth looked very different across these zip codes, ranging from 0.18% (33603 in Riverside Heights/Egypt Lake) to 93% (33598 in Balm/Wimauma). Average and median zip code population growth were 25% and 18%, respectively. Out of the 10 ZIP Codes that grew the fastest, seven are in South County (e.g., 33570, 33572, and 33573). The rest are in Downtown Tampa, Brandon, and Lutz. These 10 ZIP Codes attracted 53% of all new residents to the county. Their growth ranged from 41% in 33548 (in Lutz) to 93% in 33598 (in Wimauma) with an average growth of 63%. As expected, for ZIP Codes that straddle the Urban Service Area (USA) boundary (e.g., 33570, 33579, 33598), most of the new population moved within the USA (See Figure 1 for details).
Figure 1. 2010-2020 Growth Areas Within Hillsborough County (Darker blue areas grew fastest)
Figure 2. 2010-2020 Population Growth in the 10 ZIP Codes that Grew the Fastest
In terms of additional growth through 2045, countywide population is expected to increase 31% to 1.9 million persons. At the ZIP Code level, expected growth ranges from 2% (33634 in Town and Country) to 251% (33565 in Plant City). Average countywide growth is 45% and the median growth is 22%.
Amongst the fastest growing ZIP Codes since 2010, additional growth through 2045 ranges from 6% through 119% (See Figure 3 below). The average is 42%. Two of these ZIP Codes are expected to more than double their population (i.e., 33602 in downtown Tampa and 33598 in Balm/Wimauma). One of four expected new residents (122,718 persons) are expected to move to these ZIP Codes.
Figure 3. 2020-2045 Expected Population Growth in ZIP Codes Grew Fastest Since 2010
To conclude, the 58 ZIP Codes in Hillsborough County have grown an average of 25% since 2010. The 7 fastest growing ZIP Codes are in South County. Their population grew between 41% and 93%. Most ZIP Codes in Hillsborough County will see significant population growth through 2045 (averaging 45%). Countywide, five ZIP Codes will see their populations at least double through 2045 (i.e., 33527(Dover), 33565(Plant City), 33584 (Seffner), 33592 (Thonotosassa), 33598 (Wimauma), and 33602 (Tampa). In our next articles, we will take a closer look at population growth trends inside each jurisdiction, starting with Plant City and ending with Unincorporated Hillsborough County.
For more information on housing units, population, and employment trends, please go to: https://planhillsborough.org/demographic-economic-data/. Do you have an economic or demographic data need for a more specific area within Hillsborough County? Please feel free to contact us.