Published
January 25, 2024
Contact
Yassert A. Gonzalez, Manager – Economics, Demographics & Research, 813-582-7356 (o), [email protected], planhillsborough.org
Last updated
January 25, 2024
Early last year, we published a blog on population growth since 2020. Many readers thought our conclusions were premature. They asked us to wait a year and include the years 2017 and 2023 in our analysis. Again, the conventional wisdom is that growth has accelerated since the pandemic[i][ii].
According to the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), in 2023, Hillsborough County topped 1.5 million residents. Meanwhile, Plant City and Tampa surpassed 40K and 400K residents, respectively[iii]. The hypothesis is that we have reached these milestones sooner because of accelerated population growth since the pandemic. We decided to (re)test this hypothesis by comparing population growth for periods 2017-2020 and 2020-2023[iv]. Alas, Hillsborough County’s growth did not accelerate. Alternatively, most Tampa Bay Region Counties have grown significantly faster since 2020.
As seen in Table 1 and Chart 1, except for Temple Terrace, 2020-2023 population growth in Hillsborough County’s has been lower than population growth in the period 2017-2020. Even in the case of Temple Terrace, 2020-2023 population growth was only slightly higher. Thus, for jurisdiction inside Hillsborough County, the hypothesis of higher growth since the pandemic is not supported by BEBR’s data.
Table 1. Population estimates and growth for Hillsborough County’s Jurisdictions
| Jurisdiction | 2017 | 2020 | 2023 | 2017-2020 Population Growth | 2020-2023 Population Growth | Higher Growth Since 2020? |
| Plant City | 38,297 | 39,846 | 40,949 | 4.04% | 2.77% | No |
| Tampa | 373,058 | 392,953 | 406,294 | 5.33% | 3.40% | No |
| Temple Terrace | 26,411 | 26,832 | 27,327 | 1.59% | 1.84% | Yes |
| Unincorporated Hillsborough County | 941,536 | 1,019,128 | 1,066,961 | 8.24% | 4.69% | No |
| Total | 1,379,302 | 1,478,759 | 1,541,531 | 7.21% | 4.24% | No |
Chart 1. Comparing 2017-2020 Population Growth vs. 2020-2023 Population Growth for Hillsborough County Jurisdictions
We also compared population change and percent change for Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) in Hillsborough County. Only 232 TAZs (23% or about 1 in 5 TAZs) grew faster in the period 2020-2023 versus 2017-2020. As seen in Table 2, average, median and maximum change, and percent change were lower in the period 2020-2023. In 2017-2020, TAZs 821 and 868 (both in Palm River) grew the fastest and attracted the most new residents, respectively. TAZ 821’s population grew from 26 residents (2017) to 660 residents (2020) (+634 residents or 2,438.46% higher than 2017). Meanwhile, TAZ 868’s population went from 1,280 to 6,836 residents (+5,556 persons or 62% higher than 2017). Alternatively, in 2020-2023, TAZ 991 (Residential Planned-2 or RP-2) and TAZ 691 (Ybor Palmetto Bay) grew the fastest and attracted the most new residents, respectively. TAZ 991’s population grew from 3,055 residents (2020) to 8,699 residents (2023) (+5,644 residents or 184.75% higher than 2020). Meanwhile, TAZ 691’s population went from 41 to 638 residents (+597 persons or 1,456% higher than 2017). For visual detail, see Figures 1-4 below.
Table 2. Descriptive Statistics 2017-2020 and 2020-2023 Population Growth by Traffic Analysis Zones in Hillsborough County
| Statistics | 2017-2020 Population Change | 2017-2020 Population Percent Change | 2020-2023 Population Change | 2020-20203Population Percent Change |
| Minimum | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| First Quartile | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| Average | 84 | 11.06% | 81 | 8.91% |
| Median | 4 | 0.33% | 2 | 0.10% |
| Mode | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| Third Quartile | 30 | 2.55% | 17 | 1.61% |
| Maximum | 5,556 | 2,438.46% | 5,644 | 1,456.10% |
Figure 1. 2017-2020 Population Change by Traffic Analysis Zones within Hillsborough County
Figure 2. 2017-2020 Population Percent Change by Traffic Analysis Zones within Hillsborough County
Figure 3. 2020-2023 Population Change by Traffic Analysis Zones within Hillsborough County
Figure 4. 2020-2023 Population Percent Change by Traffic Analysis Zones within Hillsborough County
In terms of the 8 counties in the Tampa Bay Region, most have grown faster since 2020. As seen in Table 3, and Chart 2, and Figure 5, Citrus, Hernando, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Polk grew significantly faster since 2020. The growth ranged from 6.29% (Hernando County) to 12.55% (Pasco County) and averaged nearly 10%. For the period 2020-2023, Citrus County’s population growth more than doubled (from 3.88% in 2017-2020 to 8.61% in 2020-2023). Interestingly, amongst these 8 counties, Hillsborough County has one of the lowest growth rates since 2020. Its 2020-2023 growth rate (4.24%) significantly lower than the growth rates for the period 2017-2020 (7.21%). Both the region and the state show lower growth since 2020.
Table 3. Population estimates and growth for Tampa Bay Counties
| Tampa Bay Region Counties | 2017 | 2020 | 2023 | 2017-2020 Growth | 2020-2023 Growth | Higher Growth Since 2020? |
| Citrus | 143,801 | 149,383 | 162,240 | 3.88% | 8.61% | Yes |
| Hernando | 181,882 | 192,186 | 204,265 | 5.67% | 6.29% | Yes |
| Hillsborough | 1,379,302 | 1,478,759 | 1,541,531 | 7.21% | 4.24% | No |
| Manatee | 368,782 | 398,503 | 439,566 | 8.06% | 10.30% | Yes |
| Pasco | 505,709 | 542,638 | 610,743 | 7.30% | 12.55% | Yes |
| Pinellas[v] | 949,842 | 959,107 | 971,243 | 0.98 | 1.27% | Yes |
| Polk | 661,645 | 715,090 | 797,616 | 8.08% | 11.54% | Yes |
| Sarasota | 407,260 | 438,816 | 464,223 | 7.75% | 5.79% | No |
| TB Region | 4,598,223 | 4,874,482 | 5,191,427 | 6.01% | 6.50% | Yes |
| Florida | 20,484,142 | 21,596,068 | 22,634,867 | 5.43% | 4.81% | No |
Chart 2. Comparing 2017-2020 Population Growth vs. 2020-2023 Population Growth for Tampa Bay Counties
Figure 5. Population Growth in Eight Counties in the Tampa Bay Region
As we have seen, Hillsborough County continues to attract new residents. Although the 2020-2023 population growth rates is lower than their growth rates for their period 2017-2020, the county is still on track to reach nearly 2 million residents by 2050[vi]. Around the Tampa Bay Region, population growth has indeed accelerated. In 6 of the 8 Tampa Bay Region Counties 2020-2023 population growth is higher than 2017-2020 population growth. Still, statewide population growth was lower in the period 2020-2023 than the period 2017-2020.
[i] Hylton, Garfield. Orland Sentinel. Florida ranked among most popular states for move-ins during pandemic, survey says. January 26, 2022. https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/florida/os-ne-florida-ranked-one-of-most-popular-states-for-move-ins-pandemic-20220126-esu452skarbodizshvqe5bjx7m-story.html
[ii] Spata, Christopher. Tampa Bay Times. Fleeing to Florida? New arrivals explain why they moved to Tampa Bay. February 24, 2022. https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida/2022/02/24/fleeing-to-florida-new-arrivals-explain-why-they-moved-to-tampa-bay/
[iii] Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Florida Estimates of Population 2017, 2020, and 2023. University of Florida. https://bebr.ufl.edu/population/population-data/
[iv] Growth rates calculated from population estimates published by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Florida Estimates of Population for 2017, 2020, and 2023. University of Florida. https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/population/population-data-archive/
[v] Published BEBR population estimates for Pinellas Counties are: 962,003 (2017), 984,054 (2020), and 974,689 (2020). Since these numbers show a decline in population for the period 2020-2023, we contacted Forward Pinellas staff. They disagree with BEBR. Their estimates are shown in this table. Jared Austin. “RE: BEBR’s 2020 population estimate appears to be off.” Received by Yassert Gonzalez. 22JAN2024.
[vi] Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Projections of Florida Population by County, 2025-2050, with estimates for 2021. University of Florida. https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/population_page_repo/projections-of-florida-population-by-county-2025-2050-with-estimates-for-2021/