This chart shows a 2050 population pyramid for Hillsborough County. The 2020 population is broken down into 7 age cohorts: Ages 0-4. ages 5-17, ages 18-24, ages 25-54, ages 55-64, ages 65-79, and ages 80+. The largest age cohort (ages 25-54) represent 39.4% of the 2020 population.

Published
August 14, 2023

Contact
Yassert A. Gonzalez | Manager – Economics, Demographics & Research | 813.582.7356 | [email protected]

Last updated
August 25, 2023

According to BEBR’s latest forecast by age cohort[i], Florida is expecting 2.5 million new residents aged 65 and over through 2050. Around 500,000 of these new residents are expected to choose Tampa Bay as their new home. In this article, we’re looking at trends in population growth by age groups for Hillsborough and the other seven counties in the Tampa Bay Region.

For simplicity, we are going to look at shares and growth trends using three age cohorts:  Ages 0-17 (minors), ages 18-64 (working age population), and ages 65 and over (retirees). As seen in Figures 1a to 1f, Hillsborough County’s working age population has been declining.  Conversely, the retiree population has been increasing. In 2021, the working age population was 62.2% (down from 64.3% in 2010) and the retiree population was 14.4% (up from 11.8% in 2010). By 2050, the working age population will be 59.9% of the total population (down from 62.2% in 2021) and the retirees will be 17.8% of the total county population (up from 14.4% in 2021).

Figure 1a.  Share of 2010 Population Estimate by Age Cohort for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This figure shows share of 2010 population by age cohort for Hillsborough County. In 2010, 64.3% of the Hillsborough County residents were aged 18 to 64 years old. Retirees were 11.8% of the total population.

Figure 1b.  2010 Population Pyramid for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This chart shows a 2010 population pyramid for Hillsborough County. The 2010 population is broken down into 7 age cohorts: Ages 0-4. ages 5-17, ages 18-24, ages 25-54, ages 55-64, ages 65-79, and ages 80+. The largest age cohort (ages 25-54) represent 42.9% of the 2010 population.

Figure 1c.  Share of 2021 Population Estimate by Age Cohort for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This figure shows share of 2021 population by age cohort for Hillsborough County. In 2021, 62.2% of the Hillsborough County residents were aged 18 to 64 years old. Retirees were 14.4% of the total population.

Figure 1d.  2021 Population Pyramid for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This chart shows a 2020 population pyramid for Hillsborough County. The 2020 population is broken down into 7 age cohorts: Ages 0-4. ages 5-17, ages 18-24, ages 25-54, ages 55-64, ages 65-79, and ages 80+. The largest age cohort (ages 25-54) represent 40.7% of the 2020 population.

Figure 1e.  Share of 2050 Population Projection by Age Cohort for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This figure shows share of 2050 projected population by age cohort for Hillsborough County. By 2050, 59.9% of the Hillsborough County residents will be aged 18 to 64 years old. Retirees will be 17.8% of the total population.

Figure 1f.  2050 Population Pyramid for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This chart shows a 2050 population pyramid for Hillsborough County. The 2020 population is broken down into 7 age cohorts: Ages 0-4. ages 5-17, ages 18-24, ages 25-54, ages 55-64, ages 65-79, and ages 80+. The largest age cohort (ages 25-54) represent 39.4% of the 2020 population.

As seen in Figures 2a-2c, below, amongst the eight (8) Tampa Bay Region counties, Hillsborough County has the highest share of working age population and lowest share of retirees.  By 2050, Hillsborough is projected to still have the highest of its population classified as “working age” (59.9%) and lowest share its population classified as “retirees” (17.8%. At least 1 out of 2 residents in Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, and Polk are expected to be of working age through 2050. Alternatively, at least 1 out of 3 residents in Citrus, Hernando, Manatee, Pinellas, and Sarasota will be retirees through 2050. Figure 2d reveals that all eight counties will see a decline in the working age population and an increase in the retiree population.  Particularly, Manatee, Pinellas, and Polk will see the largest decrease in working age population and largest increase in retiree population.

Figure 2a.  Share of 2010 Population Estimate by Age Cohort for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This chart shows share of 2010 population by age cohort for 8 Tampa Bay Region Counties: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. It also shows population shares by age cohort to the Tampa Bay Region and the all of Florida. The share of 2010 residents less than 17 years old averages 19.8%. It ranges from 15.7% in Sarasota County to 23.9% in Hillsborough County. The share of 2010 residents between 18 and 64 years old averages 57.2%. It ranges from 52.3% in Citrus County to 64.3% in Hillsborough County. Lastly, the share of 2010 residents over 65 years old averages 23%. It ranges from 11.8% in Hillsborough County to 31.9% in Citrus County.

Figure 2b.  Share of 2021 Population Estimate by Age Cohort for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This chart shows share of 2021 population by age cohort for 8 Tampa Bay Region Counties: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. It also shows population shares by age cohort to the Tampa Bay Region and the all of Florida. The share of 2021 residents less than 17 years old averages 18.7%. It ranges from 14.6% in Sarasota County to 23.3% in Hillsborough County. The share of 2021 residents between 18 and 64 years old averages 54.8%. It ranges from 49.6% in Sarasota County to 62.2% in Hillsborough County. Lastly, the share of 2021 residents over 65 years old averages 26.5%. It ranges from 14.4% in Hillsborough County to 35.8% in Sarasota County.

Figure 2c.  Share of 2050 Population Projection by Age Cohort for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This chart shows share of 2050 projected population by age cohort for 8 Tampa Bay Region Counties: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. It also shows population shares by age cohort to the Tampa Bay Region and the all of Florida. The share of 2050 projected residents less than 17 years old averages 18.0%. It ranges from 14.5% in Citrus and Sarasota Counties to 22.3% in Hillsborough County. The share of 2021 residents between 18 and 64 years old averages 52%. It ranges from 47.4% in Sarasota County to 59.9% in Hillsborough County. Lastly, the share of 2050 residents over 65 years old averages 30%. It ranges from 17.8% in Hillsborough County to 38.2% in Sarasota County.

Figure 2d.  Change in Share of Population by Age Cohort for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This chart shows 2021-2050 change in share of population by age cohort for 8 Tampa Bay Region Counties: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. It also shows population shares by age cohort to the Tampa Bay Region and the all of Florida. By 2050, these 8 counties will see a decrease in the share of the population aged 0-17 and 18-64. Alternatively, Manatee, Pinellas, and Polk County, will see their population 65 and over increase 5%.

Lastly, as seen in Figures 3a to 3c, below, for 4 of 8 counties in the Tampa Bay Region, there appears to be consistency in the age cohort forecasts. When we compared BEBR 2040 projections by age cohort published in 2022 to the BEBR 2040 projection by age cohort published in 2014[ii], four of the 8 counties show little difference in the projected cohort shares. In the case of Hillsborough County, back in 2014, BEBR projected the working age population and retirees will be 60% and 16.7% of the total population, respectively.  More recently, in 2022, BEBR projected the working age population and retirees will be 59.6% and 17.6% of the total population, respectively.  Alternatively, Citrus, Manatee, and Pinellas County show the largest decreases in the working age population and largest increases in retiree population.

Figure 3a.  Share of BEBR 2040 Population Projection Published in 2014 by Age Cohort for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This chart shows share of BEBR 2040 population published in 2014 by age cohort for 8 Tampa Bay Region Counties: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. It also shows population shares by age cohort to the Tampa Bay Region and the all of Florida. The share of 2040 residents less than 17 years old averages 18.3%. It ranges from 14.1% in Citrus County to 23.2% in Hillsborough County. The share of 2040 residents between 18 and 64 years old averages 52%. It ranges from 47.2% in Sarasota County to 60% in Hillsborough County. Lastly, the share of 2021 residents between over 65 years old averages 29.7%. It ranges from 16.7% in Hillsborough County to 38.6% in Citrus County.

Figure 3b.  Share of BEBR 2040 Population Projection Published in 2022 by Age Cohort for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This chart shows share of BEBR 2040 population published in 2022 by age cohort for 8 Tampa Bay Region Counties: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. It also shows population shares by age cohort to the Tampa Bay Region and the all of Florida. The share of 2040 residents less than 17 years old averages 18.4%. It ranges from 14.7% in Sarasota County to 2.8% in Hillsborough County. The share of 2040 residents between 18 and 64 years old averages 51.0%. It ranges from 45.5% in Sarasota County to 59.6% in Hillsborough County. Lastly, the share of 2021 residents between over 65 years old averages 30.6%. It ranges from 17.6% in Hillsborough County to 39.8% in Sarasota County.

Figure 3c.  Change in Share of 2040 Population by Age Cohort for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This chart shows 2021-2050 change in share of population by age cohort for 8 Tampa Bay Region Counties: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. It also shows population shares by age cohort to the Tampa Bay Region and the all of Florida. By 2050, these 8 counties will see a decrease in the share of the population aged 0-17 and 18-64. Moreover, Manatee and Sarasota Counties, will see their population 65 increase over 1.6% and 2.7%, respectively.

As we have seen, BEBR is not expecting the age distribution of Hillsborough County residents to change radically by 2050. For the eight (8) the counties in the Tampa Bay Region, working age population is trending down and retiree population is trending up. Still, Hillsborough County is expected to host the largest working age population and smallest retiree population in the Tampa Bay Region through 2050.

[i] Population Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for Florida and Its Counties, 2025–2050, With Estimates for 2021. Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Florida Population Studies. Bulletin 193, October 2022.Link:  https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/projections_2022_asrh.pdf

[ii] Population Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for Florida and Its Counties, 2015–2040, With Estimates for 2013. Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Florida Population Studies. Bulletin 169, June 2014.Link:  https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/sites/default/files/Research%20Reports/projections_2014_asrh.pdf