Tampa Bay Region Welcomed 497K New Residents Since 2020

This map shows the 8 counties in the Tampa Bay Region: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. The map also shows two bar graphs. On the top bar graph, we see the 2020-2025 growth rates. These growth rates averaged 10.43% and ranged from 0.81% in Pinellas County to 16.31% in Pasco County. On the bottom bar graph, we see 2020-2025 new residents by County. These new residents averaged 62,148 and ranged from 7,826 new residents to Pinellas County and 132K new residents to Polk County.

Published
November 3, 2025

Contact
Yassert A. Gonzalez Manager – Economics, Demographics & Research 813-582-7356 (o) [email protected] planhillsborough.org

Last updated
November 12, 2025

The Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) recently released its 2025 population estimates by county, offering a fresh look at where Florida’s growth is concentrated midway through the decade.

As we continue to wade through what some have dubbed “The Raging 20s,” the Tampa Bay Region continues to shine as one of Florida’s fastest-growing areas—adding 497,000 new residents between 2020 and 2025.

That means nearly one in every three people who moved to Florida during the past five years settled somewhere in the Tampa Bay Region.

5 Takeaways

  • Tampa Bay Welcomed Nearly Half a Million New Residents
  • The Region Outpaced the State—Again in 2020-2025
  • Polk, Pasco, and Hillsborough Drove Two-Thirds of Regional Growth
  • Population growth accelerated in 35 counties across Florida (5 counties in the Tampa Bay Region)
  • Still 3rd Most Populous County in Florida, Hillsborough County is Still Growing, But Slower

Tampa Bay Outpaces the State

Although population growth has slowed statewide, the Tampa Bay Region grew faster than Florida overall in both the 2015–2020 and 2020–2025 periods.

Between 2020 and 2025, the eight-county region—Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota—expanded its population by 10.2%, compared with 8.26% statewide. See Table 1.

This regional acceleration underscores Tampa Bay’s enduring appeal: affordable housing (relative to South Florida), diversified job markets, and continued in-migration from other U.S. metros.

Polk, Pasco, and Hillsborough Lead the Pack

Among the region’s eight counties, Polk County gained the most new residents—131,800, the highest of any county in Florida.

Pasco County ranked second within the region and fourth statewide, adding 106,000 residents—a 16.3% increase.

Hillsborough County ranked third in the region and seventh statewide, welcoming 97,000 new residents, nearly one-fifth of the regional total.

Altogether, these three counties—Polk, Pasco, and Hillsborough—accounted for more than two-thirds of Tampa Bay’s population growth during the past five years. See Figures 1a-1c.

Five Counties Accelerated Their Growth

Five of the region’s eight counties—Citrus, Hernando, Manatee, Pasco, and Polk—grew faster in 2020–2025 than they did in 2015–2020.

Only two counties in the region did not achieve double digit growth – Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. The rest averaged 15% and ranged from 10.75% (Hernando County) to 19.48% (Pasco County).

Pinellas’ population increased by less than 1%—reflecting its mature development pattern and limited available land.

Table 1.  Population estimates and growth for Tampa Bay Counties

 2015202020252015-2020 Change2015-2020 Percent Change2015-2020 Change Rank2015-2020 Percent Change Rank2020-2025 Change2020-2025 Percent Change2020-2025 Change Rank2020-2025 Percent Change RankGrowing Faster?
Citrus141,501149,383166,5007,8825.57%363817,11711.46%3121Yes
Hernando176,819192,186212,84915,3678.69%282120,66310.75%2725Yes
Hillsborough1,325,5631,478,7591,575,637153,19611.56%21796,8786.55%739No
Manatee349,334398,503466,84549,16914.08%11768,34217.15%1312Yes
Pasco487,588542,638648,36955,05011.29%918105,73119.48%48Yes
Pinellas944,971959,107966,93314,1361.50%30497,8260.82%3554No
Polk633,052715,090846,89682,03812.96%610131,80618.43%110Yes
Sarasota392,090438,816487,64046,72611.92%141648,82411.13%1822No
Tampa Bay Region Counties4,450,9184,874,4825,371,669423,5649.52%  497,18710.20%   
             
FLORIDA19,815,18321,596,06823,379,2611,780,8858.99%  1,783,1938.26%   

Figure 1a.  2020 Population, 2020-2025 New Residents, and 2020-2025 Population Growth for Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, and Manatee Counties

This bar chart shows 2020 population, 2020-2025 new residents, and 2020-2025 population growth for four counties in the Tampa Bay Region: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, and Manatee. Citrus County had 149,383 people in 2020. It has added 17,117 people since 2020. Thus, it is population grew 11.46%. Hernando County had 192,186 people in 2020. It has added 20,663 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 10.75%. Hillsborough County had 1.5 million people in 2020. It has added 96,878 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 6.55%. Manatee County had 398,503 people in 2020. It has added 68,342 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 17.15%.
This bar chart shows 2020 population, 2020-2025 new residents, and 2020-2025 population growth for four counties in the Tampa Bay Region: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, and Manatee. Citrus County had 149,383 people in 2020. It has added 17,117 people since 2020. Thus, it is population grew 11.46%. Hernando County had 192,186 people in 2020. It has added 20,663 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 10.75%. Hillsborough County had 1.5 million people in 2020. It has added 96,878 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 6.55%. Manatee County had 398,503 people in 2020. It has added 68,342 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 17.15%.

Figure 1b.  2020 Population, 2020-2025 New Residents, and 2020-2025 Population Growth for Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota Counties

This bar chart shows 2020 population, 2020-2025 new residents, and 2020-2025 population growth for four counties in the Tampa Bay Region: Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. Pasco County had 542,638 people in 2020. It has added 105,731 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 19.48%. Pinellas County had 959,107 people in 2020. It has added 7,826 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 0.82%. Polk County had 715,090 people in 2020. It has added 131,806 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 18.43%. Sarasota County had 438,816 people in 2020. It has added 48,824 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 11.13%.
This bar chart shows 2020 population, 2020-2025 new residents, and 2020-2025 population growth for four counties in the Tampa Bay Region: Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. Pasco County had 542,638 people in 2020. It has added 105,731 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 19.48%. Pinellas County had 959,107 people in 2020. It has added 7,826 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 0.82%. Polk County had 715,090 people in 2020. It has added 131,806 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 18.43%. Sarasota County had 438,816 people in 2020. It has added 48,824 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 11.13%.

Figure 1c.  2020 Population, 2020-2025 New Residents, and 2020-2025 Population Growth for Tampa Bay Region and Florida

This bar chart shows 2020 population, 2020-2025 new residents, and 2020-2025 population growth for the Tampa Bay Region and Florida. The Tampa Bay Region had 4.9 million people in 2020. It has added 497K people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 10.20%. Florida 21.6 million people in 2020. It has added 1.8 million people since 2020. Thus, it is population grew 8.26%.
This bar chart shows 2020 population, 2020-2025 new residents, and 2020-2025 population growth for the Tampa Bay Region and Florida. The Tampa Bay Region had 4.9 million people in 2020. It has added 497K people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 10.20%. Florida 21.6 million people in 2020. It has added 1.8 million people since 2020. Thus, it is population grew 8.26%.

Figure 2a.  2015-2020 New Residents and 2015-2020 Population Growth for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This map shows the 8 counties in the Tampa Bay Region: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. The map also shows two bar graphs. On the top bar graph, we see the 2015-2020 growth rates. These growth rates averaged 9.65% and ranged from 1.5% in Pinellas County to 14.08% in Manatee County. On the bottom bar graph, we see 2015-2020 new residents by County. These new residents averaged 52,946 and ranged from 7,882 new residents to Citrus County and 153K new residents to Hillsborough County.
This map shows the 8 counties in the Tampa Bay Region: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. The map also shows two bar graphs. On the top bar graph, we see the 2015-2020 growth rates. These growth rates averaged 9.65% and ranged from 1.5% in Pinellas County to 14.08% in Manatee County. On the bottom bar graph, we see 2015-2020 new residents by County. These new residents averaged 52,946 and ranged from 7,882 new residents to Citrus County and 153K new residents to Hillsborough County.

Figure 2b.  2020-2025 New Residents and 2020-2025 Population Growth for Tampa Bay Region Counties

This map shows the 8 counties in the Tampa Bay Region: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. The map also shows two bar graphs. On the top bar graph, we see the 2020-2025 growth rates. These growth rates averaged 10.43% and ranged from 0.81% in Pinellas County to 16.31% in Pasco County. On the bottom bar graph, we see 2020-2025 new residents by County. These new residents averaged 62,148 and ranged from 7,826 new residents to Pinellas County and 132K new residents to Polk County.
This map shows the 8 counties in the Tampa Bay Region: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. The map also shows two bar graphs. On the top bar graph, we see the 2020-2025 growth rates. These growth rates averaged 10.43% and ranged from 0.81% in Pinellas County to 16.31% in Pasco County. On the bottom bar graph, we see 2020-2025 new residents by County. These new residents averaged 62,148 and ranged from 7,826 new residents to Pinellas County and 132K new residents to Polk County.

Statewide Context: Florida Still a Magnet for Movers

Across Florida, 1.78 million new residents arrived between 2020 and 2025—roughly the same number as the previous five-year period.

The counties attracting the largest influx of residents were Polk (132K), Orange (121K), Miami-Dade (113K), Pasco (106K), and Osceola (98K).

Meanwhile, St. Johns County (near Jacksonville) posted the fastest percentage growth in the state at 33%, followed by Osceola (25.28%) and Flagler (23.25%).

Half of Florida’s 67 counties grew faster in 2020–2025 than in the prior period—evidence of continued, though shifting, population momentum across the state.

Hillsborough: Still Growing, But More Slowly

With nearly 1.58 million residents in 2025, Hillsborough County remains Florida’s third-most-populous county, behind Miami-Dade and Broward.

Although its five-year growth rate (6.55%) was slower than during 2015–2020, Hillsborough remains a major population center—on track to reach nearly two million residents by 2050.

Its slower pace is balanced by the rapid growth of neighboring counties, especially Polk and Pasco, which are absorbing much of the region’s outward expansion. See Table 2 an Figures 3a-4c.

Table 2.  Population estimates and growth for 10 Florida Counties with Largest Number of 2020-2025 New Residents

 2015202020252015-2020 Change2015-2020 Percent Change2015-2020 Change Rank2015-2020 Percent Change Rank2020-2025 Change2020-2025 Percent Change2020-2025 Change Rank2020-2025 Percent Change RankGrowing Faster Since 2020?
St. Johns213,566261,900348,33648,33422.63%12386,43633.00%101Yes
Osceola308,327387,055484,91578,72825.53%7197,86025.28%52No
Flagler101,353114,173140,71412,82012.65%321326,54123.25%223Yes
St. Lucie287,749322,265394,07434,51612.00%181571,80922.28%124Yes
Lake316,569366,742445,88150,17315.85%10679,13921.58%115Yes
Walton60,68774,72490,54714,03723.13%31215,82321.18%326No
Nassau76,53689,258107,05312,72216.62%33517,79519.94%307Yes
Pasco487,588542,638648,36955,05011.29%918105,73119.48%48Yes
Charlotte167,141187,904223,43020,76312.42%231435,52618.91%199Yes
Polk633,052715,090846,89682,03812.96%610131,80618.43%110Yes
FLORIDA19,815,18321,596,06823,379,2611,780,8858.99%001,783,1938.26%   

Figure 3a.  2020 Population, 2020-2025 New Residents, and 2020-2025 Population Growth for Duval, Hillsborough, Lee, Miami-Dade, and Orange

This bar chart shows 2020 population, 2020-2025 new residents, and 2020-2025 population growth for five of 10 Florida counties that attracted the largest number of new residents: St, Johns, Osceola, Flagler, St. Lucie, and Lake Counties. St. Johns County 261,900 people in 2020. It has added 86,436 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 33%. Osceola County had 387,055 people in 2020. It has added 97,860 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 25.28%. Flagler County had 114,173 people in 2020. It has added 26,541 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 23.25%. St. Lucie County had 322,265 people in 2020. It has added 71,809 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 22.28%. Lake County had 366,742 people in 2020. It has added 79,139 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 21.58%.
This bar chart shows 2020 population, 2020-2025 new residents, and 2020-2025 population growth for five of 10 Florida counties that attracted the largest number of new residents: St, Johns, Osceola, Flagler, St. Lucie, and Lake Counties. St. Johns County 261,900 people in 2020. It has added 86,436 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 33%. Osceola County had 387,055 people in 2020. It has added 97,860 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 25.28%. Flagler County had 114,173 people in 2020. It has added 26,541 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 23.25%. St. Lucie County had 322,265 people in 2020. It has added 71,809 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 22.28%. Lake County had 366,742 people in 2020. It has added 79,139 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 21.58%.

Figure 3b.  2020 Population, 2020-2025 New Residents, and 2020-2025 Population Growth for Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, and St. Johns

This bar chart shows 2020 population, 2020-2025 new residents, and 2020-2025 population growth for five of 10 Florida counties that attracted the largest number of new residents: Walton, Nassau, Pasco, Charlotte, and Polk. Walton County had 74,724 people in 2020. It has added 15,823 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 20.18%. Nassau County had 89,258 people in 2020. It has added 17,795 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 19.94%. Pasco County had 542,638 people in 2020. It has added 105,731 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 19.48%. Charlotte County had 187,904 people in 2020. It has added 35,526 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 18.91%. Polk County had 715,090 people in 2020. It has added 131,806 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 18.43%.
This bar chart shows 2020 population, 2020-2025 new residents, and 2020-2025 population growth for five of 10 Florida counties that attracted the largest number of new residents: Walton, Nassau, Pasco, Charlotte, and Polk. Walton County had 74,724 people in 2020. It has added 15,823 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 20.18%. Nassau County had 89,258 people in 2020. It has added 17,795 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 19.94%. Pasco County had 542,638 people in 2020. It has added 105,731 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 19.48%. Charlotte County had 187,904 people in 2020. It has added 35,526 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 18.91%. Polk County had 715,090 people in 2020. It has added 131,806 people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 18.43%.

Figure 3c.  2020 Population, 2020-2025 New Residents, and 2020-2025 Population Growth for Florida

This bar chart shows 2020 population, 2020-2025 new residents, and 2020-2025 population growth for Florida. Florida had 21.60 million people in 2020. It has added 1.78 million people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 8.26%.
This bar chart shows 2020 population, 2020-2025 new residents, and 2020-2025 population growth for Florida. Florida had 21.60 million people in 2020. It has added 1.78 million people since 2020. Thus, its population grew 8.26%.

Figure 4a.  2015-2020 New Residents and 2015-2020 Population Growth for Florida Counties

This map shows the 67 Florida Counties. The 10 counties that received the most new residents in 2015-2020 are highlighted. These highlighted counties are Duval, Hillsborough, Lee, Miami-Dade, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, and St. Johns. It also shows two bar charts. The top chart shows 2015-2020 percent change in population. For these top 10 counties, 2015-2020 population growth ranged from 1.80% (Miami-Dade) to 25.53% (Osceola) and averaged 12.63%. The top chart shows 2015-2020 new residents. For these top 10 counties, 2015-2020 new residents ranged from 47,833 new residents (Miami-Dade) to 162,864 (Orange) and averaged 87,727 new residents
This map shows the 67 Florida Counties. The 10 counties that received the most new residents in 2015-2020 are highlighted. These highlighted counties are Duval, Hillsborough, Lee, Miami-Dade, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, and St. Johns. It also shows two bar charts. The top chart shows 2015-2020 percent change in population. For these top 10 counties, 2015-2020 population growth ranged from 1.80% (Miami-Dade) to 25.53% (Osceola) and averaged 12.63%. The top chart shows 2015-2020 new residents. For these top 10 counties, 2015-2020 new residents ranged from 47,833 new residents (Miami-Dade) to 162,864 (Orange) and averaged 87,727 new residents

Figure 4b.  2020-2025 New Residents and 2020-2025 Population Growth for Florida Counties

This map shows the 67 Florida Counties. The 10 counties that received the most new residents in 2020-2025 are highlighted. These highlighted counties are Duval, Hillsborough, Lee, Miami-Dade, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, and St. Johns. It also shows two bar charts. The top chart shows 2020-2025 percent change in population. For these top 10 counties, 2020-2025 population growth ranged from 4.02% (Miami-Dade) to 24.81% (St. Johns) and averaged 12.02%. The top chart shows 2020-2025 new residents. For these top 10 counties, 2020-2025 new residents ranged from 86,436 new residents (St. Johns) to 131,806 (Polk) and averaged 102,802 new residents
This map shows the 67 Florida Counties. The 10 counties that received the most new residents in 2020-2025 are highlighted. These highlighted counties are Duval, Hillsborough, Lee, Miami-Dade, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, and St. Johns. It also shows two bar charts. The top chart shows 2020-2025 percent change in population. For these top 10 counties, 2020-2025 population growth ranged from 4.02% (Miami-Dade) to 24.81% (St. Johns) and averaged 12.02%. The top chart shows 2020-2025 new residents. For these top 10 counties, 2020-2025 new residents ranged from 86,436 new residents (St. Johns) to 131,806 (Polk) and averaged 102,802 new residents

Figure 4c.  Florida Counties growing Faster in 2020-2025 vs. 2015-2020.

This map shows the 67 Florida Counties in white. The 34 counties where 2020-2025 percent change in population was higher than the 2015-2020 percent change in population are in color. Amongst these 34 counties, the 10 counties that attracted the highest number of new residents in 2020-2025 are highlighted. These highlighted counties are Brevard, Duval, Lake, Manatee, Marion, Miami-Dade, Pasco, Polk, St. Johns, and St. Lucie. It also shows two bar charts. The top chart shows 2020-2025 percent change in population. For these top 10 counties, 2020-2025 population growth ranged from -3.21% (Gadsden) to 24.81% (St. Johns) and averaged 10.53%. The top chart shows 2020-2025 new residents. For these top 10 counties, 2020-2025 new residents ranged from -1,436 new residents (Gadsden) to 131,806 (Polk) and averaged 33,814 new residents
This map shows the 67 Florida Counties in white. The 34 counties where 2020-2025 percent change in population was higher than the 2015-2020 percent change in population are in color. Amongst these 34 counties, the 10 counties that attracted the highest number of new residents in 2020-2025 are highlighted. These highlighted counties are Brevard, Duval, Lake, Manatee, Marion, Miami-Dade, Pasco, Polk, St. Johns, and St. Lucie. It also shows two bar charts. The top chart shows 2020-2025 percent change in population. For these top 10 counties, 2020-2025 population growth ranged from -3.21% (Gadsden) to 24.81% (St. Johns) and averaged 10.53%. The top chart shows 2020-2025 new residents. For these top 10 counties, 2020-2025 new residents ranged from -1,436 new residents (Gadsden) to 131,806 (Polk) and averaged 33,814 new residents

Looking Ahead

The Tampa Bay Region’s ability to attract nearly half a million new residents despite rising housing costs, infrastructure strain, and post-pandemic migration shifts underscores its long-term economic resilience.

As growth continues to spread eastward and northward, regional collaboration in transportation, land use, and housing affordability will remain key to ensuring that the region’s success remains sustainable.

Sources

  1. Florida Estimates of Population 2025. Bureau of Economics and Business Research (BEBR). Main Site: bebr.ufl.edu. Link: Florida Estimates of Population 2025 (Table 1)
  2. Florida Estimates of Population 2020. Bureau of Economics and Business Research (BEBR). Main Site: bebr.ufl.edu. Main Site: bebr.ufl.edu. Link: Florida Estimates of Population 2020 (Table 1)
  3. Florida Estimates of Population 2015. Bureau of Economics and Business Research (BEBR). Main Site: bebr.ufl.edu. Link: Florida Estimates of Population 2015 (Table 1)

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