In an earlier blog, we looked at growth patterns for the period 2020-2025.  Naturally, folks want to know what’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) expecting for the second half of “The Raging 2020s”. Not surprisingly, the Tampa Bay Region is projected to remain one of Florida’s fastest-growing regions—adding 397,000 new residents between 2025 and 2030. As in the previous 5 years, nearly one in every three people will become one of our neighbors here in the Tampa Bay Region.

5 Key Takeaways

• Tampa Bay is projected to add 397K new residents by 2030.
• Alternatively, a “momentum” scenario suggests as many as 547K new residents.
• The region will grow faster than the state and remain one of Florida’s top destinations.
• Hillsborough, Pasco, and Polk will attract the largest number of new residents to the region
• In terms of percent growth in population, Manatee County is expected  to see one of the largest percentage growth rates through 2030.

Tampa Bay Expected to Remain Ahead of the State

Regionwide, BEBR projects Tampa Bay to grow 7.40%, compared to 6.23% statewide. The region will gain 397,431 new residents, maintaining its role as one of Florida’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas.

Why the continued strength?

Tampa Bay’s appeal is broad: a diversified job market, competitive housing costs compared to South Florida, continued domestic in-migration, and a strong regional economy. (See Table 1 and Figures 1a-1d.)

Hillsborough, Polk, and Pasco Lead the Pack

According to BEBR, among the region’s eight counties, Hillsborough County is expected to attract the most new residents—121,463, the highest of any county in Florida through 2030.

Other regional standouts include:

• Polk County: +83,204 new residents (3rd highest statewide)
• Pasco County: +62,831 new residents (4th highest statewide)

Together, these three counties—Hillsborough, Polk, and Pasco—will account for more than two-thirds of all regional growth through 2030.

Across Tampa Bay, projected percent growth rates range from 1.82% in Pinellas to 10.34% in Manatee, the only Tampa Bay county expected to grow more than 10% through 2030.

Tampa Bay Region: BEBR 2030 Projections

By 2030:

• Hillsborough County is projected to reach 1.7 million people, growing 7.71% compared to 6.55% during 2020–2025.
• Manatee County leads the region in percent growth (10.34%).
• Pinellas County is expected to see the smallest percentage increase (1.82%).
• The Tampa Bay Region (eight counties) is projected to reach 5.77 million residents.

While the region remains strong, BEBR projects growth to moderate from 497K new residents in 2020–2025 to 397K in 2025–2030.  See Table 1 and Figures 1a-1d.

Table 1.  2020 Population, 2025 Population, and BEBR Projected 2030 Population and Growth for Tampa Bay Counties

County	2020	2025	BEBR Published 2030	2020-2025 Change	2025-2030 Projected Change	2020-2025 Percent Change	2025-2030 Projected Percent Change	2020-2025 Percent Change Rank	2025-2030 Percent Change Rank	Share of New Residents
Citrus	149,383	166,500	178,300	17,117	11,800	11.46%	7.09%	4	7	2.97%
Hernando	192,186	212,849	229,100	20,663	16,251	10.75%	7.63%	6	5	4.09%
Hillsborough	1,478,759	1,575,637	1,697,100	96,878	121,463	6.55%	7.71%	7	4	30.56%
Manatee	398,503	466,845	515,100	68,342	48,255	17.15%	10.34%	3	1	12.14%
Pasco	542,638	648,369	711,200	105,731	62,831	19.48%	9.69%	1	3	15.81%
Pinellas	959,107	966,933	984,500	7,826	17,567	0.82%	1.82%	8	8	4.42%
Polk	715,090	846,896	930,100	131,806	83,204	18.43%	9.82%	2	2	20.94%
Sarasota	438,816	487,640	523,700	48,824	36,060	11.13%	7.39%	5	6	9.07%
Tampa Bay Region Counties	4,874,482	5,371,669	5,769,100	497,187	397,431	10.20%	7.40%			100.00%
Florida	21,596,068	23,379,261	24,836,000	1,783,193	1,456,739	8.26%	6.23%

Figure 1a.  2025 Population, 2025-2030 New Residents, and 2025-2030 Population Growth for Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, and Manatee Counties

Figure 1b.  2025 Population, 2025-2030 New Residents, and 2025-2030 Population Growth for Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota Counties

Figure 1c.  2025 Population, 2025-2030 New Residents, and 2025-2030 Population Growth for Tampa Bay Region and Florida

Figure 1d.  BEBR 2025-2030 New Residents and Population Growth for Tampa Bay Region Counties

Alternative 2030 Scenario: What If Recent Growth Continues?

As a thought experiment, we developed a naïve or momentum-based forecast, applying each county’s 2020–2025 growth rate to its 2025 population. This scenario helps illustrate:

• how outcomes shift if recent migration and housing trends persist,
• the impact of BEBR’s assumed statewide slowdown, and
• a useful high-side planning benchmark for long-range infrastructure and policy discussions.

What it shows

If the first half of the decade’s growth continued at the same pace:

• The Region would gain 548K new residents instead of 397K.
• Pasco (+126K) and Polk (+156K) would grow significantly faster than BEBR projects.
• Six of the eight Tampa Bay counties would exceed BEBR’s medium forecast.
• Regionwide growth would average 10.20%, compared to 7.40% under BEBR’s projection.

Under this scenario, Tampa Bay’s population would reach 5.92 million by 2030—about 150,000 more residents than the BEBR forecast.  See Table 2 and Figures 2a-2d.

Table 2.  2025 Population, BEBR Projected 2030 Population, and Alternative Projected 2030 Population for Tampa Bay Counties

County	2025	BEBR Published 2030	Alternative 2030 using 2020-2025 Growth	2025-2030 Projected Change	Alternative 2025-2030 Change	2025-2030 Projected Percent Change	Alternative 2025-2030 Projected Percent Change	Share of New Residents	Alternative Share of New Residents
Citrus	166,500	178,300	185,578	11,800	19,078	7.09%	11.46%	2.97%	3.48%
Hernando	212,849	229,100	235,734	16,251	22,885	7.63%	10.75%	4.09%	4.18%
Hillsborough	1,575,637	1,697,100	1,678,862	121,463	103,225	7.71%	6.55%	30.56%	18.84%
Manatee	466,845	515,100	546,907	48,255	80,062	10.34%	17.15%	12.14%	14.61%
Pasco	648,369	711,200	774,701	62,831	126,332	9.69%	19.48%	15.81%	23.06%
Pinellas	966,933	984,500	974,823	17,567	7,890	1.82%	0.82%	4.42%	1.44%
Polk	846,896	930,100	1,002,997	83,204	156,101	9.82%	18.43%	20.94%	28.49%
Sarasota	487,640	523,700	541,896	36,060	54,256	7.39%	11.13%	9.07%	9.90%
Tampa Bay Region Counties	5,371,669	5,769,100	5,919,568	397,431	547,899	7.40%	10.20%	100.00%	100.00%
Florida	23,379,261	24,836,000	25,309,693	1,456,739	1,930,432	6.23%	8.26%

Figure 2a.  2025 Population, BEBR Projected 2030 Population, and Alternative Projected 2030 Population for Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, and Manatee Counties

Figure 2b.  2025 Population, BEBR Projected 2030 Population, and Alternative Projected 2030 Population for Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota Counties

Figure 2c.  2025 Population, BEBR Projected 2030 Population, and Alternative Projected 2030 Population for Tampa Bay Region and Florida

Figure 2d.  BEBR 2025-2030 New residents and Population Growth vs. Alternative 2025-2030 New Residents and Population Growth for Tampa Bay Region Counties

Figure 2e.  2020-2025 New Residents and Population Growth vs. Alternative 2025-2030 New Residents and Population for Tampa Bay Region Counties

Statewide Outlook: Florida’s Growth Is Expected to Slow

Statewide, BEBR projects Florida to reach 24.8 million residents by 2030. While still strong, this represents a slowdown from the state’s remarkable 1.78 million new residents added in 2020–2025.

Through 2030:

• Only 24 of 67 counties are expected to grow faster than they did in 2020–2025.
• Hillsborough (+121K), Orange (+118K), Polk (+83K), Palm Beach (+81K), and Lee (+79K) will add the most residents.
• Sumter County (15.33%), St. Johns (13.77%), and Walton (13.42%) will lead Florida in percentage growth.  See Table 3 and Figures 3a-3d.

Table 3.  2020 Population, 2025 Population, and BEBR Projected 2030 Population and Growth for Tampa Bay Counties

County	2020	2025	BEBR Published 2030	2020-2025 Change	2025-2030 Projected Change	2020-2025 Percent Change	2025-2030 Projected Percent Change	2020-2025 Percent Change Rank	2025-2030 Percent Change Rank	Share of New Residents
Sumter	141,422	162,493	187,400	21,071	24,907	14.90%	15.33%	14	1	1.71%
St. Johns	261,900	348,336	396,300	86,436	47,964	33.00%	13.77%	1	2	3.29%
Walton	74,724	90,547	102,700	15,823	12,153	21.18%	13.42%	6	3	0.83%
Flagler	114,173	140,714	156,800	26,541	16,086	23.25%	11.43%	3	4	1.10%
St. Lucie	322,265	394,074	438,200	71,809	44,126	22.28%	11.20%	4	5	3.03%
Lake	366,742	445,881	495,800	79,139	49,919	21.58%	11.20%	5	6	3.43%
Nassau	89,258	107,053	118,500	17,795	11,447	19.94%	10.69%	7	7	0.79%
Manatee	398,503	466,845	515,100	68,342	48,255	17.15%	10.34%	12	8	3.31%
Santa Rosa	184,653	211,445	233,100	26,792	21,655	14.51%	10.24%	16	9	1.49%
Gulf	14,724	16,621	18,300	1,897	1,679	12.88%	10.10%	17	10	0.12%
Florida	21,596,068	23,379,261	24,836,000	1,783,193	1,456,739	8.26%	6.23%	0	0	0.00%

Figure 3a.  2025 Population, 2025-2030 New Residents, and 2025-2030 Population Growth for Sumter, St. Johns, Walton, Flagler, and St. Lucie Counties

Figure 3b.  2025 Population, 2025-2030 New Residents, and 2025-2030 Population Growth for Lake, Nassau, Manatee, Santa Rosa, and Gulf Counties

Figure 3c.  2025 Population, 2025-2030 New Residents, and 2025-2030 Population Growth for Florida

Figure 3d. BEBR 2025-2030 New Residents and 2025-2030 Population Growth for Florida Counties

Figure 3e.  Florida Counties Expected to Grow Faster in 2025-2030 based on BEBR Estimates and Projections

Small Rural Counties Showing a Modest Rebound

Ten rural counties that lost population from 2020 to 2025 are projected to begin growing again. These are:

Bradford, Calhoun, DeSoto, Gadsden, Glades, Hamilton, Lafayette, Liberty, Okeechobee, and Taylor.

These counties represent Florida’s small, rural, non-metropolitan tier, characterized by agriculture, natural resource–based economies, and historically modest population change. Though their expected 2025–2030 growth is modest, most are projected to return to population gains after several years of decline. Alas, under the alternative forecast, these counties would be expected to continue to see losses in population. See Table 4 and Figure 4.

Table 4.  2020 Population, 2025 Population, and BEBR Projected 2030 Population and Growth for Counties did not grow in 2020-2025

County	2020	2025	BEBR Published 2030	2020-2025 Change	2025-2030 Projected Change	2020-2025 Percent Change	2025-2030 Projected Percent Change
Bradford	28,725	27,668	28,000	-1,057	332	-3.68%	1.20%
Calhoun	14,489	13,655	13,700	-834	45	-5.76%	0.33%
DeSoto	37,082	35,947	36,400	-1,135	453	-3.06%	1.26%
Gadsden	46,226	44,790	45,100	-1,436	310	-3.11%	0.69%
Glades	13,609	13,055	13,200	-554	145	-4.07%	1.11%
Hamilton	14,570	14,155	14,600	-415	445	-2.85%	3.14%
Lafayette	8,690	8,601	9,000	-89	399	-1.02%	4.64%
Liberty	8,575	8,140	8,200	-435	60	-5.07%	0.74%
Okeechobee	42,112	40,314	41,000	-1,798	686	-4.27%	1.70%
Taylor	22,436	22,011	22,400	-425	389	-1.89%	1.77%

Figure 4.  2020 Population, 2025 Population, and BEBR Projected 2030 Population and Growth for Counties did not grow in 2020-2025

Statewide Alternative Scenario: Stronger Momentum Possible

Applying the same naïve forecasting approach statewide produces a higher alternative projection:

• 25.3 million residents by 2030,
• +1.93 million new residents,
• 8.26% growth statewide.

Under this scenario, the strongest performers would be:

Duval, Hillsborough, Lake, Lee, Miami-Dade, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Polk, and St. Johns.

These counties would average 117K new residents each, with Polk County leading the group (+156K). Table 5 and Figure 5a-5d.

Table 5.  2025 Population, BEBR Projected 2030 Population, and Alternative Projected 2030 Population for 10 Florida Counties

County	2025	BEBR Published 2030	Alternative 2030 using 2020-2025 Growth	2025-2030 Projected Change	Alternative 2025-2030 Projected Change	2025-2030 Projected Percent Change	Alternative 2025-2030 Projected Percent Change	Growing Faster Through 2030
Duval	1,079,044	1,144,000	1,185,582	64,956	106,538	6.02%	9.87%	Yes
Hillsborough	1,575,637	1,697,100	1,678,862	121,463	103,225	7.71%	6.55%	No
Lake	445,881	495,800	542,097	49,919	96,216	11.20%	21.58%	Yes
Lee	839,223	918,500	938,443	79,277	99,220	9.45%	11.82%	Yes
Miami-Dade	2,814,927	2,888,600	2,932,827	73,673	117,900	2.62%	4.19%	Yes
Orange	1,536,045	1,654,400	1,667,138	118,355	131,093	7.71%	8.53%	Yes
Osceola	484,915	529,800	607,517	44,885	122,602	9.26%	25.28%	Yes
Pasco	648,369	711,200	774,701	62,831	126,332	9.69%	19.48%	Yes
Polk	846,896	930,100	1,002,997	83,204	156,101	9.82%	18.43%	Yes
St. Johns	348,336	396,300	463,299	47,964	114,963	13.77%	33.00%	Yes
Florida	23,379,261	24,836,000	25,309,693	1,456,739	1,930,432	6.23%	8.26%	Yes

Figure 5a.  2025 Population, BEBR Projected 2030 Population, and Alternative Projected 2030 Population for Duval, Hillsborough, Lake, Lee, and Miami-Dade Counties

Figure 5b.  2025 Population, BEBR Projected 2030 Population, and Alternative Projected 2030 Population for Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Polk, and St. Johns Counties

Figure 5c.  2025 Population, BEBR Projected 2030 Population, and Alternative Projected 2030 Population for Florida

Figure 5d.  BEBR 2025-2030 New Residents and Population vs. Alternative 2025-2030 New Residents and Population Growth for Florida Counties

Figure 5e.  2020 New Residents and Population Growth vs. Alternative 2025-2030 New Residents for Florida Counties and Population Growth

Conclusion

Using BEBR’s latest estimates and projections, we compared growth patterns across Florida’s 67 counties for the periods 2020–2025 and 2025–2030. The data suggest that Florida’s overall population growth is expected to cool. Nonetheless, the Tampa Bay Region remains one of the state’s strongest population magnets. The alternative momentum scenario highlights how outcomes change if recent migration patterns persist. Under either scenario, Hillsborough County will remain one of the top 10 counties in Florida attracting over 100K new residents through 2030, continuing Tampa Bay’s central role in Florida’s population story.

Sources

1. Projections of Florida Population by County, 2025-2050, with Estimates for 2024. Bureau of Economics and Business Research (BEBR). Main Site: bebr.ufl.edu. Main Site: bebr.ufl.edu. Link: http://bebr.ufl.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/projections_2025.xlsx
2. Florida Estimates of Population 2025. Bureau of Economics and Business Research (BEBR). Main Site: bebr.ufl.edu. Link: Florida Estimates of Population 2025 (Table 1)