Earlier, we reviewed trends in demolition permits. Typically, a demolition is the first step in the process of redeveloping a parcel. In order to accommodate the 539K new persons and 433K new jobs expected through 2050, we would need to develop 28,777 undeveloped acres and redevelop 21,130 built acres (inside the Urban Service Area). Alas, the characteristics of redeveloped parcels and the dynamics that govern redevelopment are poorly understood by the public. Thus, in this blog, we discuss 2016-2023 redevelopment trends based on a sample of 786 parcels (986 acres). Simply, for a sample group of parcels, we compared the buildings that were there in 2015 to the buildings that were there as of June 2024. We hope this will help folks understand this important component of future growth.

Key Takeways

A large number of redevelopable parcels will be needed to accommodate new jobs and residents through 2050. We wanted to better understand redevelopment dynamics. We reviewed a sample of 786 parcels redeveloped since 2015.

1. Residential Redevelopment:
   • 574 of the redeveloped parcels (73%) were residential.
   • Redeveloped housing units grew from 677 in 2015 to 4,952 by 2024, a 631% increase.
   • Most new units were multi-family dwellings, developed on light commercial or industrial parcels.
2. Commercial Redevelopment:
   • 212 commercial parcels were redeveloped, reducing the number of commercial buildings from 314 in 2015 to 276 by 2024.
   • However, the heated commercial area more than doubled from 2.1 million sq. ft. to 4.7 million sq. ft.
   • Light industrial redevelopment played a significant role, with most transformations from light commercial to light industrial uses.

Identifying Redeveloped Parcels

For this analysis, we used 2015 as the base year.  Here is the process used to identify:

1. Identified 2015 built parcels (i.e., not vacant)
2. From built parcels, removed parcels devoted to agricultural, recreational, educational, or government uses.
3. For commercial and residential parcels, identified parcels with same Property Index Number (PIN) (e.g., “A-01-29-18-4FY-000001-00001.1”) in both 2015 and 2024.
   1. Caveat: If the redeveloped parcel was assigned a new PIN, it was not captured in our analysis.
4. For parcels with same PIN in 2015 and 2024, identified parcels with different built year
   • For parcel A-01-29-18-4FY-000001-00001.1
     • Built year in 2015 = 1948
     • Built year in 2024 = 2022
5. As some redevelopable parcels are split, we identified additional 2024 built parcels whose centroid are located inside the original 2015 parcel polygon and with a built year greater than 2015.

As seen in Tables 1a and 1b, 786 parcels met our criteria.  These redeveloped 2015 parcels comprise 986 acres and 3.1 million square feet of heated area. Most of these parcels are in Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County. In 2015, these parcels hosted 677 housing units and 314 commercial buildings.

Table 1a. 2015 Parcels Redeveloped in the period 2016 through 2023

Jurisdictions	Parcels	Percent	Acreage	Percent	Heated Area	Percent
Plant City	41	5.22%	20.72	2.10%	45,781	1.47%
Tampa	386	49.11%	211.48	21.44%	1,609,913	51.71%
Temple Terrace	5	0.64%	3.71	0.38%	29,166	0.94%
Unincorporated Hillsborough County	354	45.04%	750.34	76.08%	1,428,537	45.88%
Total	786	100.00%	986.25	100.00%	3,113,397	100.00%

Table 1b. Housing Units and Commercial Buildings, and Heated Area (in sq. ft.) Redeveloped in the period 2016 through 2023

Jurisdictions	Housing Units	Percent	Residential Heated Area	Percent	Commercial Buildings	Percent	Commercial Heated Area	Percent
Plant City	32	4.73%	8,895	0.93%	12	3.82%	36,886	1.71%
Tampa	310	45.79%	441,299	46.07%	161	51.27%	1,168,614	54.21%
Temple Terrace	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	5	1.59%	29,166	1.35%
Unincorporated Hillsborough County	335	49.48%	507,657	53.00%	136	43.31%	920,880	42.72%
Total	677	100.00%	957,851	100.00%	314	100.00%	2,155,546	100.00%

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Redeveloped Residential Parcels

Out of these 786 redeveloped parcels, 574 (73%) were residential.  Back in 2015, there were 677 housing units in these residential parcels. Most of these redeveloped residential parcels were in Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County.  We could not identify any residential parcel in Temple Terrace that met our criteria. Moreover, less than 5% of these redeveloped residential parcels were in Plant City.  Redevelopment activity ranged from 29 housing units redeveloped in 2016 to 183 housing units redeveloped in 2023 and averaged 79 per year.  This represents 12% of the redevelopable residential parcels in this sample. Both Tampa (118 redeveloped housing units) and Unincorporated Hillsborough County (65 redeveloped housing units), reached their maximum in 2023.  See Table 2a and Figures 2a to 2c for details

Table 2a. Redeveloped 2015 Housing Units by year

Jurisdictions	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	January – June 2024	Total	Percent	2016-2023 Average
Plant City	11	6	8	2	2	0	3	0	0	32	4.73%	5
Tampa	5	18	17	24	36	22	24	118	46	310	45.79%	33
Temple Terrace	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00%	N/A
Unincorporated Hillsborough County	13	33	26	57	64	36	38	65	3	335	49.48%	42
Total	29	57	51	83	102	58	65	183	49	677	100.00%	79

Figure 2a. Hillsborough County – Redeveloped Housing Units by year

Figure 2b. Plant City – Redeveloped Housing Units by year

Figure 2c. Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Redeveloped Housing Units by year

Characteristics of Sample Redeveloped Residential Parcels

Here are some characteristics of the sample redeveloped residential parcels:

• Age (653 parcels)
  • Age ranged from 7 to 178 years old and averaged 60 years old
  • 76% of the residential parcels in this sample were at least 40 years old (See Figure 2d)
• Parcel Acreage (574 parcels)
  • Acreage ranged from 0.04 to 18.95 acres and averaged 1 acre
  • 72% of the residential parcels in this sample were at least 0.18 acres (See Figure 2e)
• Building to Land Value Ratio (574 parcels)
  • Building to Land Value Ratio ranged from 0 to 6.47 and averaged 0.94
  • 75% of the residential parcels in this sample had a ratio greater than or equal to 0.25 (See Figure 2f)

Figure 2d. Count and Percent Share of Redeveloped 2015 residential housing units by age

Figure 2e. Count and Percent Share of Redeveloped 2015 residential parcels by parcel size

Figure 2f. Count and Percent Share of Redeveloped 2015 residential parcels by building to land value ratio

2015 Housing Units vs. 2024 Housing Units

By 2024, in these sample parcels, total housing units grew from 677 to 4,952 housing units (631% higher). Most of the new housing units were multi-family dwellings (48 housing units in 2015 vs. 4,388 housing units in 2024). Most of these multi-family dwellings were sited in redeveloped light commercial or light industrial sites. Two-family housing units and housing units inside mobile home parks decreased over 60% from 2015. Single-family and mobile homes increased less than 1%. See Tables 3a-3b and Figures 3a-3c.

Table 3a. 2015 Housing Units vs. 2024 Redeveloped Housing Units

Existing Land Use	2015 Housing Units	Share of 2015 Total Housing Units	2024 Housing Units	Share of 2024 Total Housing Units	2015-2024 Change	2015-2024 Percent Change
Mobile Home Park	17	2.51%	6	0.12%	-11	-64.71%
Multi-Family	48	7.09%	4,388	88.61%	4,340	9,041.67%
Single Family / Mobile Home	516	76.22%	520	10.50%	4	0.78%
Two Family	96	14.18%	38	0.77%	-58	-60.42%
Total	677	100.00%	4,952	100.00%	4,275	631.46%

Figure 3a. 2015 Housing Units vs. 2024 Redeveloped Housing Units

Table 3b. 2024 Housing Units by Change to Existing Land Use

2015 Existing Land Use to 2024 Existing Land Use	Housing Units	Percent
Light Commercial to Multi-Family	1,993	40%
Light Industrial to Multi-Family	834	17%
Multi-Family to Multi-Family	426	9%
Public / Quasi-Public / Institutions to Multi-Family	546	11%
Other Residential	1,153	23%
Total	4,952	100%

Figure 3b. Share of 2024 Housing Units by Change in Existing Land Use from 2015 to 2024

Figure 3c. Location of Sample Redeveloped 2015 Residential Parcels by Existing Land Use

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Redeveloped Nonresidential Parcels

In the remainder 212 sample redeveloped 2015 commercial parcels, there were 314 commercial buildings. Most of these buildings were in Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County.  For Temple Terrace, there were 5 commercial buildings redeveloped (1.6% of sample).  For Plant City, there were 12 buildings redeveloped (4% of the sample parcels).  Redevelopment activity ranged from 10 commercial buildings redeveloped in 2016 to 62 commercial buildings redeveloped in 2019 and averaged 39 per year. This also represents 12% of the redevelopable commercial buildings.  Tampa peaked in 2019 at 32 redeveloped commercial buildings. Meanwhile, Unincorporated Hillsborough County peaked in 2022 at 31 redeveloped commercial buildings.  See Tables 4a-4b and Figures 4a-4c for details

Table 4a. Redeveloped 2015 Commercial Buildings by year

Jurisdictions	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	January – June 2024	Total	Percent	2016-2023 Average
Plant City	0	0	3	4	2	2	1	0	0	12	3.82%	2
Tampa	6	26	19	25	20	10	31	22	2	161	51.27%	20
Temple Terrace	0	2	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	5	1.59%	2
Unincorporated Hillsborough County	4	25	11	32	10	14	20	20	0	136	43.31%	17
Total	10	53	33	62	34	26	52	42	2	314	100.00%	39

Figure 4a. Hillsborough County – Redeveloped Commercial Buildings by year

Figure 4b. Plant City and Temple Terrace – Redeveloped Commercial Buildings by year

Figure 4c. Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Redeveloped Commercial Buildings by year

Characteristics of Sample Redeveloped Commercial Parcels

Here are some characteristics of the sample redeveloped commercial parcels:

• Age (314 parcels)
  • Age ranged from 9 to 127 years old and averaged 52 years old
  • 80% of the commercial parcels in this sample were at least 37 years old (See Figure 4d)
• Parcel Acreage (212 parcels)
  • Acreage ranged from 0.11 to 36.24 acres and averaged 1.91 acre
  • 75% of the commercial parcels in this sample were at least 0.45 acres (See Figure 4e)
• Building to Land Value Ratio (212 parcels)
  • Building to Land Value Ratio ranged from 0 to 6.52 and averaged 0.87
  • 75% of the commercial parcels in this sample had a ratio greater than or equal to 0.25 (See Figure 4f)

Figure 4d. Count and Percent Share of Redeveloped 2015 commercial buildings by age

Figure 4e. Count and Percent Share of Redeveloped 2015 commercial parcels by parcel size

Figure 4f. Count and Percent Share of Redeveloped 2015 commercial buildings by building to land value ratio

2015 Commercial Buildings vs. 2024 Commercial Buildings

By 2024, in the sample parcels, redevelopment reduced the number of commercial buildings to 276 from 314 in 2015 (12% lower).  Nonetheless, the commercial heated area more than doubled to 4.7 million sq. ft from 2.1 million in 2015.  Light industrial became the largest industrial use (56% of the redeveloped commercial area). Most of these commercial redevelopments were from Light Commercial to Light Commercial (39%) and Light Commercial to Light Industrial (13%). Some single family and mobile homes were converted to light commercial uses (7%).  See Tables 5a-6a and Figures 5a-6c.

Table 5a. 2015 Commercial Buildings vs. 2024 Redeveloped Commercial Buildings

Existing Land Use	2015 Commercial Buildings	Share of 2015 Total Commercial Buildings	2024 Commercial Buildings	Share of 2024 Total Commercial Buildings	2015-2024 Change	2015-2024 Percent Change
Agricultural	0	0.00%	10	0.00%	10	N/A
Educational	4	1.27%	11	0.99%	7	175.00%
Group Homes	0	0.00%	3	0.00%	3	N/A
Heavy Commercial	31	9.87%	14	4.67%	-17	-54.84%
Heavy Industrial	15	4.78%	11	8.37%	-4	-26.67%
Light Commercial	192	61.15%	153	55.70%	-39	-20.31%
Light Industrial	41	13.06%	65	13.82%	24	58.54%
Natural	0	0.00%	1	0.00%	1	N/A
Public / Quasi-Public / Institutions	30	9.55%	7	12.33%	-23	-76.67%
Public Communications / Utilities	0	0.00%	1	0.00%	1	N/A
Recreational / Open Space	1	0.32%	0	4.12%	-1	-100.00%
Vacant Comm	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	0	N/A
Total	314	100.00%	276	100.00%	-38	-12.10%

Figure 5a. 2015 Commercial Buildings vs. 2024 Redeveloped Commercial Buildings

Table 5b. 2015 Commercial Buildings vs. 2024 Redeveloped Commercial Buildings

	2015 Commercial Heated Area (sq. ft.)	Share of 2015 Total Commercial Heated Area	2024 Commercial Heated Area (sq. ft.)	Share of 2024 Total Commercial Heated Area	2015-2024 Change	2015-2024 Percent Change
Agricultural	0	0.00%	137,655	2.92%	137,655	N/A
Educational	11,104	0.52%	282,793	5.99%	271,689	2446.77%
Group Homes	0	0.00%	140,583	2.98%	140,583	N/A
Heavy Commercial	61,961	2.87%	78,695	1.67%	16,734	27.01%
Heavy Industrial	45,590	2.12%	34,169	0.72%	-11,421	-25.05%
Light Commercial	1,357,988	63.00%	1,296,941	27.47%	-61,047	-4.50%
Light Industrial	454,985	21.11%	2,652,104	56.18%	2,197,119	482.90%
Natural	0	0.00%	2,093	0.04%	2,093	N/A
Public / Quasi-Public / Institutions	223,306	10.36%	77,508	1.64%	-145,798	-65.29%
Public Communications / Utilities	0	0.00%	18,480	0.39%	18,480	N/A
Recreational / Open Space	612	0.03%	0	0.00%	-612	-100.00%
Vacant Comm	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	0	N/A
Total	2,155,546	100.00%	4,721,021	100.00%	2,565,475	119.02%

Figure 5b. 2015 Commercial Heated Area (sq. ft) vs. 2024 Redeveloped Commercial Heated Area

Table 6a. 2024 Commercial Buildings by Change to Existing Land Use

2015 Existing Land Use to 2024 Existing Land Use	Buildings	Percent
Heavy Commercial to Light Commercial	15	6%
Light Commercial to Light Commercial	108	39%
Light Commercial to Light Industrial	36	13%
Single Family / Mobile Home to Light Commercial	19	7%
Other Commercial	96	35%
Total	274	100%

Figure 6a. Share of 2024 Commercial Buildings by Existing Land Use

Figure 6b. Location of Sample Redeveloped 2015 Commercial Parcels by Existing Land Use

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Conclusion

We followed the redevelopment path for 574 residential 2015 parcels and 212 commercial 2015 parcels.  By 2024, these 2015 parcels hosted new housing units or commercial buildings.  Based on these sample parcels, on average, 12% of the redevelopable residential housing units and 12% of the redevelopable commercial buildings are redeveloped every year.  Parcels located in Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County saw the most redevelopment. Housing units increased from 677 to 4,794 (608% higher).  Most of the new housing units were multi-family developed in formerly light industrial or light commercial parcels. Most of the redeveloped residential parcels were at least 40 years old and 0.2 acres. Commercial heated area grew from 2.1 million sq. ft. to 4.7 sq. ft. (120% higher). Most of the commercial redevelopment occurred in commercial properties. They were also at least 37 years old and 0.45 acres. It appears that the there is a large variation in the building to land value ratio. These findings may be used to refine the selection criteria for redevelopable parcels.