Back in February 2022, without much fanfare, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) released its first 2050 population projections for all 67 Florida counties.  Almost immediately, lively discussion ensued amongst professionals and laypersons. Specifically, here at Plan Hillsborough, we were surprised that the BEBR medium projection for Hillsborough County fell just short of 2 million people. It seems like many stakeholders were also expecting the projection to top 2 million people. Thus, we decided to do some sleuthing. In this blog, we review how we systematically examined historical projections for the years 2010, 2015, and 2020.  We then compared those historical population projections to the estimates for those years.  Below, we present findings for Hillsborough County, the eight Tampa Bay Region Counties, and Florida.

Estimates vs. Projections

A population estimate is generated for the current year or past years. For example, in April 2010, BEBR estimated the 2010 population for Hillsborough County to be 1,229,226 persons. Alternatively, a population projection is an educated guess of what a number will be in the future based on best available demographic information. For example, back in 1981, BEBR projected 990,700 persons for Hillsborough County in the year 2010. Thus, when comparing the two, the 2010 population projection generated in 1981 was significantly lower than the 2010 population estimate generated in April 2010.

BEBR Population Estimates and Projections

BEBR is the official population estimator and forecaster for the State of Florida. Every year, among many other data products, it releases county-level population estimates and projections. BEBR releases 3 population projections (i.e., ‘low’, ‘medium’, and ‘high’). Typically, BEBR recommends that folks use the medium population projection. This is the most likely future scenario. In our experience, the estimate typically falls in between the medium and high projection. In terms of time, certainty is inversely related to the projection year. Thus, a projection for 2030 (6 years from now) would likely be more on target than a projection for 2070 (46 years from now). Every year, BEBR slightly adjusts its forecasts based on various observed trends and the feedback received from stakeholders around the state. Since projections vary slightly from year to year, our analysis is based on a subset of these projections.  We selected every available fifth year from 1981 through 2016. As seen in Table 1, we analyzed 6 projections for the year 2010 (i.e., projections published in the years 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006), 5 projections for the year 2015 (i.e., projections published in the years 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2011), and 8 projections for the years 2020 (i.e., projections published in the years 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016).

Table 1. BEBR Population Projections by Publication Year of Availability

Projection Year	1981	1986	1991	1996	2001	2006	2011	2016
2010	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No
2015	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
2020	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Hillsborough County – 2010, 2015, and 2020 Population Projections

Hillsborough – 2010 Population Projections vs. 2010 Population Estimate

For Hillsborough County, the 2010 projections started close together in the publication year 1981. They ranged from 837,500 persons to 1,099,000 persons. They were farthest apart in the publication year 1991.  They ranged from 789,600 persons to 1,466,500 persons.  They came back closer to together in the 2006 publication year. They ranged from 1,159,400 persons to 1,361,000 persons. In the publication year 2006, all the projections were significantly higher than in the publication year 1981.  In fact, the low projection in 2006 significantly exceeded the high projection published in 1981. Overall, 5 of the 6 median 2010 projections in this sample fell significantly short of the estimate. Only the 2010 median population projection published in 2006 exceeded the actual estimate. This is expected given the rapid growth Hillsborough County has experienced. See Table 2a and Figures 1a and 1b.

Table 2a. Hillsborough County – Low, Medium, and High 2010 Projections

	1981	1986	1991	1996	2001	2006	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Estimate
HILLSBOROUGH_LOW	837,500	791,200	789,600	898,100	991,700	1,159,400	789,600	867,800	1,159,400	1,229,226
HILLSBOROUGH_MEDIUM	990,700	1,055,000	1,094,000	1,076,100	1,153,100	1,262,700	990,700	1,085,050	1,262,700	1,229,226
HILLSBOROUGH_HIGH	1,099,000	1,318,700	1,466,500	1,292,400	1,341,700	1,361,000	1,099,000	1,330,200	1,466,500	1,229,226

Figure 1a. Hillsborough County – Low, Medium, and High 2010 Projections

Figure 1b. Hillsborough County – BEBR 2010 Medium Projections vs. BEBR 2010 Estimate

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Hillsborough County – 2015 Population Projections vs. 2015 Population Estimate

For Hillsborough County, the 2015 projections were farthest apart in the publication year 1991. They ranged from 749,200 persons to 1,648,300 persons. They were closer together in the publication year 2001.  They ranged from 989,900 persons to 1,516,200 persons.  They ended closest together in the 2011 publication year. They ranged from 1,277,500 persons to 1,384,000 persons.  In the publication year 2011, the low and medium the projections were significantly higher than in the publication year 1991. Alternatively, in 2011, the high projection was significantly lower than the high projection published in 1991. See Table 2b and Figures 1c and 1d.

Table 2b. Hillsborough County – Low, Medium, and High 2015 Projections

	1991	1996	2001	2006	2011	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Estimate
HILLSBOROUGH_LOW	749,200	883,700	989,900	1,216,800	1,277,500	749,200	989,900	1,277,500	1,325,563
HILLSBOROUGH_MEDIUM	1,152,100	1,136,400	1,233,000	1,382,700	1,325,300	1,136,400	1,233,000	1,382,700	1,325,563
HILLSBOROUGH_HIGH	1,648,300	1,441,700	1,516,200	1,548,600	1,384,000	1,384,000	1,516,200	1,648,300	1,325,563

Figure 1c. Hillsborough County – Low, Medium, and High 2015 Projections

Figure 1d. Hillsborough County – Medium 2015 Projections vs. BEBR 2015 Estimate

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Hillsborough County – 2020 Population Projections vs. 2020 Population Estimate

For Hillsborough County, the 2020 projections started close together in the publication 1981. They ranged from 918,500 persons to 1,250,900 persons. They diverged significantly in the publication year 1991.  They ranged from 696,400 persons to 1,836,000 persons.  They ended closest together in the 2016 publication year. They ranged from 1,372,300 persons to 1,539,300 persons.  In the publication year 2016, all the projections were significantly higher than in the publication year 1981.  In fact, the low projection in 2016 significantly exceeded the high projection published in 1981. See Table 2c and Figures 1e and 1f.

Table 2c. Hillsborough County – Low, Medium, and High 2020 Projections

	1981	1986	1991	1996	2001	2006	2011	2016	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Estimate
HILLSBOROUGH_LOW	918,500	758,400	696,400	861,200	977,900	1,259,700	1,328,400	1,372,300	696,400	948,200	1,372,300	1,459,762
HILLSBOROUGH_MEDIUM	1,100,900	1,166,800	1,204,200	1,196,600	1,314,100	1,493,200	1,439,000	1,466,000	1,100,900	1,259,150	1,493,200	1,459,762
HILLSBOROUGH_HIGH	1,250,900	1,575,200	1,836,000	1,599,400	1,701,300	1,739,600	1,559,400	1,539,300	1,250,900	1,587,300	1,836,000	1,459,762

Figure 1e. Hillsborough County – Low, Medium, and High 2020 Projections

Figure 1f. Hillsborough County – BEBR 2020 Projections vs. BEBR 2020 Estimate

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Tampa Bay Region Counties – 2010, 2015, and 2020 Population Projections

Tampa Bay Region Counties – 2010 Population Projections vs. 2010 Population Estimate

The Tampa Bay Region (TBR) comprises 8 counties: Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota. For TBR, the 2010 projections were relatively close in the publication year 1981. They ranged from 3.2 million persons to 4.3 million persons. They were farthest apart in the publication year 1991.  They ranged from 3 million persons to 5.5 million persons.  They came back closer to together in the 2006 publication year. They ranged from 4 million persons to 4.7 million persons. In the publication year 2006, all the projections were significantly higher than in the publication year 1981.  See Table 3c and Figures 2a and 2b.

Table 3c. Tampa Bay Region Counties – Low, Medium, and High 2010 Projections

	1981	1986	1991	1996	2001	2006	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Estimate
TAMPA BAY_LOW	3,167,100	2,993,800	3,043,600	3,226,700	3,489,900	4,008,800	2,993,800	3,196,900	4,008,800	4,228,855
TAMPA BAY_MEDIUM	3,868,500	3,991,600	4,113,100	3,981,200	4,080,500	4,371,900	3,868,500	4,036,050	4,371,900	4,228,855
TAMPA BAY_HIGH	4,347,800	4,989,700	5,462,500	4,883,300	4,757,600	4,720,000	4,347,800	4,820,450	5,462,500	4,228,855

Figure 2a. Tampa Bay Region Counties – Low, Medium, and High 2010 Projections

Figure 2b. Tampa Bay Region Counties – Medium 2010 Projections vs. BEBR 2010 Estimates

As seen in Table 3d, below, the total BEBR 2010 projections for the TBR Counties increased 13% between 1981 and 2006. At the county level, Pinellas County’s 2010 medium projection declined 15.41%.  The remaining 7 counties had higher projections ranging from 14.43% (Sarasota County) to 86.00% (Hernando County) and averaged 32.56%. The BEBR 2010 estimates for Pasco and Polk exceeded their respective maximum of 6 BEBR 2010 Medium projections. See Figures 2c and 2d.

Table 3d. Tampa Bay Region Counties – BEBR Medium 2010 Projections by Publication Year

County	1981	1986	1991	1996	2001	2006	1981-2006 Percent Change	2010 Estimate
CITRUS_MEDIUM	114,800	145,200	155,600	147,200	141,300	147,400	28.40%	141,236
HERNANDO_MEDIUM	91,400	160,500	194,100	179,300	159,400	170,000	86.00%	172,778
HILLSBOROUGH_MEDIUM	990,700	1,055,000	1,094,000	1,076,100	1,153,100	1,262,700	27.46%	1,229,226
MANATEE_MEDIUM	248,800	248,000	305,400	300,400	312,000	343,800	38.18%	322,833
PASCO_MEDIUM	396,600	412,200	414,900	391,000	404,600	463,600	16.89%	464,697
PINELLAS_MEDIUM	1,156,800	1,068,000	1,014,000	967,800	983,900	978,500	-15.41%	916,542
POLK_MEDIUM	513,800	515,700	540,000	544,300	554,900	599,000	16.58%	602,095
SARASOTA_MEDIUM	355,600	387,000	395,100	375,100	371,300	406,900	14.43%	379,448
TAMPA BAY_MEDIUM	3,868,500	3,991,600	4,113,100	3,981,200	4,080,500	4,371,900	13.01%	4,228,855

Figure 2c. Tampa Bay Region Counties – BEBR Medium 2010 Projections by Publication Year

Figure 2d. Tampa Bay Region Counties – Median of BEBR Medium 2010 Projections vs. BEBR 2010 Estimate

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Tampa Bay Region Counties – 2015 Population Projections vs. 2015 Population Estimate

For 2015, the TBR medium projections started far apart in 1991.  They ranged from 2.9 million persons to 6.2 million persons. They were closer together in the publication year 1991.  They ranged from 3.5 million persons to 5.3 million persons.  They were much closer together in the 2011 publication year. They ranged from 4.3 million persons to 4.7 million persons. In the publication year 2011, the high projection was significantly lower and the low projection was significantly higher than in publication year 1991. See Table 3e and Figures 2e and 2f.

Table 3e. Tampa Bay Region Counties – Low, Medium, and High 2015 Projections

	1991	1996	2001	2006	2011	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Estimate
TAMPA BAY_LOW	2,925,100	3,145,900	3,450,800	4,153,300	4,334,900	2,925,100	3,450,800	4,334,900	4,450,918
TAMPA BAY_MEDIUM	4,353,600	4,214,700	4,334,000	4,731,400	4,498,200	4,214,700	4,353,600	4,731,400	4,450,918
TAMPA BAY_HIGH	6,169,400	5,487,900	5,344,700	5,309,800	4,692,000	4,692,000	5,344,700	6,169,400	4,450,918

Figure 2e. Tampa Bay Region Counties – Low, Medium, and High 2015 Projections

Figure 2f. Tampa Bay Region Counties – BEBR Medium 2015 Projections vs. BEBR 2015 Estimate

As seen in Table 3f, below, the total BEBR 2015 projections for the TBR Counties increased 3% between 1991 and 2011. At the county level, 4 of the 8 TBR counties had their 2015 medium projection declined. The declines ranged from -5% (Sarasota) to -13% (Pinellas) and averaged -10%.  The remaining 4 counties had higher projections ranging from 6% (Manatee County) to 15% (Hillsborough County) and averaged 13%. See Figures 2g and 2h.

Table 3f. Tampa Bay Region Counties – BEBR Medium 2015 Projections by Publication Year

County	1991	1996	2001	2006	2011	1991-2011 Percent Change	2015 Estimate
CITRUS_MEDIUM	170,200	161,200	153,200	161,100	150,900	-11.34%	141,501
HERNANDO_MEDIUM	216,400	200,100	174,600	188,000	190,800	-11.83%	176,819
HILLSBOROUGH_MEDIUM	1,152,100	1,136,400	1,233,000	1,382,700	1,325,300	15.03%	1,325,563
MANATEE_MEDIUM	327,000	322,700	336,500	380,100	346,600	5.99%	349,334
PASCO_MEDIUM	445,800	419,300	435,100	517,400	514,300	15.37%	487,588
PINELLAS_MEDIUM	1,051,100	998,400	1,016,000	1,007,400	915,600	-12.89%	944,971
POLK_MEDIUM	569,400	577,500	591,100	651,200	654,600	14.96%	633,052
SARASOTA_MEDIUM	421,600	399,100	394,500	443,500	400,100	-5.10%	392,090
TAMPA BAY_MEDIUM	4,353,600	4,214,700	4,334,000	4,731,400	4,498,200	3.32%	4,450,918

Figure 2g. Tampa Bay Region Counties – BEBR Medium 2015 Projections by Publication Year

Figure 2h. Tampa Bay Region Counties – Median of BEBR Medium 2010 Projections vs. BEBR 2010 Estimate

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Tampa Bay Region Counties – 2020 Population Projections vs. 2020 Population Estimate

For 2020, the BEBR medium projections for TBR Counties started far apart in 1981.  They ranged from 3.5 million persons to 4.9 million persons. They were farthest apart in the publication year 1991.  They ranged from 2.8 million persons to 6.9 million persons.  They were much closer together in the 2016 publication year. They ranged from 4.5 million persons to 5.03 million persons. In the publication year 2016, the high projection was slightly higher and when first published in the year 1981.  Alternatively, the low projection was significantly higher than in publication year 1981. See Table 3g and Figures 2i and 2j.

Table 3g. Tampa Bay Region Counties – Low, Medium, and High 2020 Projections

	1981	1986	1991	1996	2001	2006	2011	2016	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Estimate
TAMPA BAY_LOW	3,473,300	2,869,700	2,756,600	3,030,100	3,379,600	4,252,900	4,441,200	4,528,900	2,756,600	3,426,450	4,528,900	4,887,880
TAMPA BAY_MEDIUM	4,298,500	4,415,100	4,571,700	4,449,500	4,592,900	5,062,000	4,811,100	4,800,800	4,298,500	4,582,300	5,062,000	4,887,880
TAMPA BAY_HIGH	4,949,000	5,960,200	6,905,500	6,131,500	5,969,400	5,909,100	5,207,900	5,027,600	4,949,000	5,934,650	6,905,500	4,887,880

Figure 2i. Tampa Bay Region Counties – Low, Medium, and High 2020 Projections

Figure 2j. Tampa Bay Region Counties – BEBR Medium 2020 Projections vs. BEBR 2020 Estimate

As seen in Table 3h, below, the total BEBR 2020 projections for the TBR Counties increased 12% between 1981 and 2016. At the county level, only Pinellas County had its projections declined 26%.  The remaining 7 counties had higher projections ranging from 5% (Sarasota County) to 91% (Hernando County) and averaged 33%. In Polk County, the BEBR 2020 estimate was higher than the maximum of the BEBR 2020 medium projections.  See Figures 2k and 2l.

Table 3h. Tampa Bay Region Counties – BEBR Medium 2020 Projections by Publication Year

County	1981	1986	1991	1996	2001	2006	2011	2016	1981-2016 Percent Change	2015 Estimate
CITRUS_MEDIUM	127,300	160,600	183,600	175,400	165,400	173,600	162,400	149,300	17.28%	153,843
HERNANDO_MEDIUM	101,600	177,600	237,000	221,400	189,900	204,400	211,200	193,600	90.55%	194,515
HILLSBOROUGH_MEDIUM	1,100,900	1,166,800	1,204,200	1,196,600	1,314,100	1,493,200	1,439,000	1,466,000	33.16%	1,459,762
MANATEE_MEDIUM	276,400	274,300	346,600	345,100	361,600	413,700	374,900	385,700	39.54%	399,710
PASCO_MEDIUM	440,700	456,000	474,000	447,700	466,300	566,700	570,600	540,400	22.62%	561,891
PINELLAS_MEDIUM	1,285,500	1,181,300	1,084,700	1,029,300	1,049,200	1,034,900	914,400	956,500	-25.59%	959,107
POLK_MEDIUM	571,000	570,400	596,000	610,800	628,200	699,000	713,900	693,400	21.44%	725,046
SARASOTA_MEDIUM	395,100	428,100	445,600	423,200	418,200	476,500	424,700	415,900	5.26%	434,006
TAMPA BAY_MEDIUM	4,298,500	4,415,100	4,571,700	4,449,500	4,592,900	5,062,000	4,811,100	4,800,800	11.69%	4,887,880

Figure 2k. Tampa Bay Region Counties – BEBR Medium 2015 Projections by Publication Year

Figure 2l. Tampa Bay Region Counties – Median of BEBR Medium 2020 Projections vs. BEBR 2020 Estimate

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Florida – 2010, 2015, and 2020 Population Projections

Florida – 2010 Population Projections vs. 2010 Population Estimate

For Florida, the 2010 projections started the farthest apart in the publication year 1981. They ranged from 13 million persons to 18 million persons. They were closer together in the publication year 1991.  They ranged from 16 million persons to 20 million persons.  They were the closest together in the 2006 publication year. They ranged from 19 million persons to 20 million persons. In the publication year 2006, all the projections were significantly higher than in the publication year 1981. Overall, 5 of the 6 median 2010 projections in this sample fell significantly short of the estimate. Only the 2010 median population projection published in 2006 exceeded the actual estimate. There were 6 counties where the BEBR 2010 estimate exceeded the maximum of the 6 BEBR 2010 Medium projections:  Baker, Glades, Lafayette, Pasco, Polk, and Sumter. In the case of Sumter County, the estimate was nearly double the median of the BEBR 2010 Medium projection. See Table 4a and Figures 5a-5c.

Table 4a. Florida – Low, Medium, and High 2010 Projections

	1981	1986	1991	1996	2001	2006	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Estimate
FLORIDA_LOW	13,004,600	14,707,400	16,079,800	16,087,600	17,760,000	19,136,900	13,004,600	16,083,700	19,136,900	18,801,310
FLORIDA_MEDIUM	15,738,200	16,696,700	17,987,900	17,825,000	18,776,400	19,920,300	15,738,200	17,906,450	19,920,300	18,801,310
FLORIDA_HIGH	17,621,700	18,670,300	20,045,400	19,526,700	19,725,500	20,376,600	17,621,700	19,626,100	20,376,600	18,801,310

Figure 3a. Florida – Low, Medium, and High 2010 Projections

Figure 3b. Florida – BEBR 2010 Medium Projections vs. BEBR 2010 Estimate

Figure 3c. Florida – Median of BEBR 2010 Medium Projections vs. BEBR 2010 Estimate

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Florida – 2015 Population Projections vs. 2015 Population Estimate

For Florida, the 2015 projections were farthest apart in the publication year 1991. They ranged from 749,200 persons to 1,648,300 persons. They were closer together in the publication year 2001.  They ranged from 989,900 persons to 1,516,200 persons.  They ended closest together in the 2011 publication year. They ranged from 1,277,500 persons to 1,384,000 persons. See Table 4b and Figures 5d and 5e.

Table 4b. Florida – Low, Medium, and High 2015 Projections

	1991	1996	2001	2006	2011	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Estimate
FLORIDA_LOW	16,808,200	16,825,500	18,690,300	20,388,800	19,421,200	16,808,200	18,690,300	20,388,800	19,815,183
FLORIDA_MEDIUM	19,132,600	19,036,600	20,211,100	21,767,500	19,974,400	19,036,600	19,974,400	21,767,500	19,815,183
FLORIDA_HIGH	21,577,500	21,209,600	21,599,000	22,613,100	20,482,400	20,482,400	21,577,500	22,613,100	19,815,183

Figure 3d. Florida – Low, Medium, and High 2015 Projections

Figure 3e. Florida – Medium 2015 Projections vs. BEBR 2015 Estimate

Figure 3f. Florida – Median of BEBR 2015 Medium Projections vs. BEBR 2015 Estimate

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Florida – 2020 Population Projections vs. 2020 Population Estimate

For Florida, the 2020 projections started farthest apart in the publication 1981. They ranged from 14 million persons to 20 million persons. They were closer together in the publication year 2001.  They ranged from 20 million persons to 23 million persons.  They ended closest together in the 2016 publication year. They ranged from 21 million persons to 22 million persons.  In the publication year 2016, all the projections were significantly higher than in the publication year 1981.  In fact, the low projection in 2016 significantly exceeded the high projection published in 1981. For Polk and St. Johns County, their BEBR 2020 estimates was higher than the maximum of the 8 BEBR 2020 medium projections. See Table 4c and Figures 5g-5i.

Table 4c. Florida – Low, Medium, and High 2020 Projections

	1981	1986	1991	1996	2001	2006	2011	2016	Minimum	Median	Maximum	Estimate
FLORIDA_LOW	14,262,300	15,911,500	17,475,600	17,595,700	19,664,100	21,655,500	20,216,600	20,726,400	14,262,300	18,629,900	21,655,500	21,538,187
FLORIDA_MEDIUM	17,488,500	18,467,400	20,173,600	20,254,800	21,683,300	23,475,800	21,326,800	21,372,200	17,488,500	20,790,800	23,475,800	21,538,187
FLORIDA_HIGH	20,058,300	20,995,300	22,964,700	22,871,900	23,485,100	24,838,500	22,342,400	22,028,800	20,058,300	22,607,150	24,838,500	21,538,187

Figure 3g. Florida – Low, Medium, and High 2020 Projections

Figure 3h. Florida – BEBR 2020 Projections vs. BEBR 2020 Estimate

Figure 3i. Florida – Median of BEBR 2020 Medium Projections vs. BEBR 2020 Estimate

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Conclusion

BEBR recently released the first 2050 population projections for the 67 Florida counties.  In response, we assessed historical population projections for the years 2010, 2015, and 2020 against their respective estimates. Based on our sample of projections, the first projection tended to be significantly lower than BEBR estimate.  Moreover, in some cases, the estimate was higher than the highest historical projection in the sample.  At the same time, these are different times.  Some think that the growth curves may have shifted downwards, see our discussion on trends in 2045 population projections in the 8 Tampa Bay Region Counties.