Employment growth in Hillsborough County: A closer look at jurisdictions and ZIP codes

This bar chart shows employment estimates for Tampa, Unincorporated Hillsborough County, and Countywide. These employment estimates include wage earners and sole proprietors. In Tampa, employment grew from 334,510 (in 2010) to 450165 (in 2020) to 520,126 (in 2023). In Unincorporated Hillsborough County, employment grew from 337,122 (in 2010) to 451,327 (in 2020) to 526,642 (in 2023). Countywide, employment grew from 715,079 (in 2010) to 957,388 (in 2020) to 1,114,200 (in 2023).

Published
July 1, 2024

Contact
Yassert A. Gonzalez -Manager – Economics, Demographics & Research – 813-582-7356 (o) – [email protected] – planhillsborough.org

Last updated
July 25, 2024

Previously, we discussed employment projections within the framework of our 2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts.  In this blog, we will be reviewing current trends in employment for jurisdictions and ZIP Codes inside Hillsborough County. 

Before we dive into some small area employment estimates, you should keep in mind some caveats.  Typically, “county” is the smallest geography at which employment data is available. There are numerous reasons for this (e.g., costs, tradition, difficulty, convenience, privacy). Moreover, significant share of employment is seasonal and/or cyclical. Nonetheless, as a local planning agency, our staff, stakeholders, and the public often need estimates and forecasts for very small areas. Thus, agency staff developed an efficient and cost-effective methodology[i] to approximate employment estimates for commercial areas.  These reasonable and defensible estimates allow us to observe employment trends in a variety of sub-county geographic areas (e.g., Census Tracts, ZIP Codes, planning areas, planning districts). As we will see later, although employment in a jurisdiction grew very fast, some small areas within said jurisdiction did not. 

Employment by Jurisdiction

There are over 1.1 million jobs countywide (156,812 more or 16.38% higher than 2020). As seen in Table 1a, there are 22,356 job sites in Hillsborough County (655 more or 3% higher than 2020). In terms of job sites’ heated area, there were 398 million square feet (17 million square feet more or 4.5% percent higher than 2020). Due to their active recruitment of transportation and logistics businesses, Plant City and Temple Terrace have seen dramatic increases in their commercial parcels’ heated area. There are over 1.1 million jobs (156,812 more or 16.38% higher than 2020).  All jurisdictions have added more jobs in the period 2020-2023 than in the previous five years (See Table 1c). See Figures 1a and 1 b for visual detail.

Table 1a. Number of Job Sites by Jurisdiction

Jurisdictions20102015202020232010-2015 Percent Change2015-2020 Percent Change2020-2023 Percent Change2015-2023 Percent Change
Plant City9789971,0441,0821.94%4.71%3.64%8.53%
Tampa7,9608,1498,3698,5052.37%2.70%1.63%4.37%
Temple Terrace3593643793881.39%4.12%2.37%6.59%
Unincorporated Hillsborough County10,88611,30411,90912,3813.84%5.35%3.96%9.53%
Total20,18320,81421,70122,3563.13%4.26%3.02%7.41%
This table shows the number of job sites by jurisdiction for the years 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2023. It also shows the growth in job sites for the periods: 2010-2015, 2015-2020, 2020-2023, and 2015-2023. All jurisdictions saw an increase in job sites. Nonetheless, their 2020-2023 growth rate was lower than their 2015-2020 growth rate.

Source:  Commercial parcel data from Hillsborough County Property Appraiser (Accessed:  June 10, 2024). Data processing by Plan Hillsborough.

Table 1b. Job Sites’ Heated Area (in millions of square feet) by Jurisdiction

Jurisdictions20102015202020232010-2015 Percent Change2015-2020 Percent Change2020-2023 Percent Change2015-2023 Percent Change
Plant City19.0119.6223.6628.373.20%20.62%19.91%44.64%
Tampa140.92143.86151.77155.282.09%5.50%2.32%7.94%
Temple Terrace6.926.957.5410.760.51%8.42%42.77%54.80%
Unincorporated Hillsborough County177.26183.26198.19203.743.39%8.15%2.80%11.17%
Total344.10353.69381.16398.152.79%7.77%4.46%12.57%
This table shows the number of commercial heated area (in millions of square feet) by jurisdiction for the years 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2023. It also shows the growth in heated area (in millions of square feet) for the periods: 2010-2015, 2015-2020, 2020-2023, and 2015-2023. All jurisdictions saw an increase heated area. Temple Terrace saw the fastest growth in the period 2020-2023.

Source:  Commercial parcel data from Hillsborough County Property Appraiser (Accessed:  June 10, 2024). Data processing by Plan Hillsborough.

Table 1c. Employment by Jurisdiction

Jurisdictions20102015202020232010-2015 Percent Change2015-2020 Percent Change2020-2023 Percent Change2015-2023 Percent Change
Plant City26,45229,84534,46441,17712.83%15.48%19.48%37.97%
Tampa334,510393,716450,165520,12617.70%14.34%15.54%32.11%
Temple Terrace16,99519,64321,43226,25515.58%9.11%22.51%33.66%
Unincorporated Hillsborough County337,122394,700451,327526,64217.08%14.35%16.69%33.43%
Countywide[ii]715,079837,904957,3881,114,20017.18%14.26%16.38%32.97%
This table shows the number of jobs by jurisdiction for the years 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2023. It also shows the growth in jobs for the periods: 2010-2015, 2015-2020, 2020-2023, and 2015-2023. All jurisdictions saw an increase in job sites. In the period 2020-2023, Plant City and Temple Terrace grew slightly faster than Tampa and the Unincorporated Hillsborough County.

Source Notes:  Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Excel Files. QCEW NAICS-Based Data Files (1975 – most recent). Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/cew/downloadable-data-files.htm. Employment by sector for the years 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2023. Bureau of Economic Analysis – Employment by County, Metro, and Other Areas.  Link:  https://apps.bea.gov/regional/downloadzip.cfm. 2010-2023 countywide employment distributed to commercial parcels using share of heated area. For example, if a light commercial parcel has 25% of the heated area for all light commercial parcels in the county, it will get 25% of the estimated countywide light commercial employment.

Figure 1a. Employment Estimates for Plant City and Temple Terrace

This bar chart shows employment estimates for Plant City and Temple Terrace. These employment estimates include wage earners and sole proprietors. In Plant City, employment grew from 26,452 (in 2010) to 34,464 (in 2020) to 41,177 (in 2023). In Temple Terrace, employment grew from 16,995 (in 2010) to 21,432 (in 2020) to 26,255 (in 2023).
This bar chart shows employment estimates for Plant City and Temple Terrace. These employment estimates include wage earners and sole proprietors. In Plant City, employment grew from 26,452 (in 2010) to 34,464 (in 2020) to 41,177 (in 2023). In Temple Terrace, employment grew from 16,995 (in 2010) to 21,432 (in 2020) to 26,255 (in 2023).

Figure 1b. Employment Estimates for Tampa, Unincorporated Hillsborough County, and Countywide

This bar chart shows employment estimates for Tampa, Unincorporated Hillsborough County, and Countywide. These employment estimates include wage earners and sole proprietors. In Tampa, employment grew from 334,510 (in 2010) to 450165 (in 2020) to 520,126 (in 2023). In Unincorporated Hillsborough County, employment grew from 337,122 (in 2010) to 451,327 (in 2020) to 526,642 (in 2023). Countywide, employment grew from 715,079 (in 2010) to 957,388 (in 2020) to 1,114,200 (in 2023).
This bar chart shows employment estimates for Tampa, Unincorporated Hillsborough County, and Countywide. These employment estimates include wage earners and sole proprietors. In Tampa, employment grew from 334,510 (in 2010) to 450165 (in 2020) to 520,126 (in 2023). In Unincorporated Hillsborough County, employment grew from 337,122 (in 2010) to 451,327 (in 2020) to 526,642 (in 2023). Countywide, employment grew from 715,079 (in 2010) to 957,388 (in 2020) to 1,114,200 (in 2023).

Employment by ZIP Code

Again, our small area estimates allow us to look at trends in small geographies within counties (i.e., ZIP Codes).  As seen in Table 2a, in the 10 ZIP Code with the highest growth in job sites, the number of jobs ranged from 28 (in ZIP Code 33559 in Lutz) to 1,230 (in ZIP Code 33610 in East Tampa) and averaged 370 job sites. In 2020-2023, job site growth ranged from 4.56% (in ZIP Code 33578 in Riverview) and 22.02% (in ZIP Code 33610 in East Tampa) and averaged 8.43%. In terms of commercial heated area, it ranged from 0.25 million square feet (in ZIP Code 33559 in Lutz) to 27.57 million square feet (in ZIP Code 33610 in East Tampa) and averaged 9.77 million square feet. In 2020-2023, job site growth ranged from 4.75% (in ZIP Code 33610 in East Tampa and 49.79% (in ZIP Code 33637 in Temple Terrace) and averaged 19.55% (See Table 2b).

For these 10 ZIP Codes, employment ranged from 817 jobs (in ZIP Code 33559 in Lutz) and 91,059 jobs (in ZIP Code 33607 in Westshore) and averaged 30,578 jobs. Employment grew from 19.44% (in ZIP Code 33596 in Valrico) to 86.78% (in ZIP Code 33559 in Lutz) and averaged 29.46%. Figures 2a shows that in 2015-2020, employment growth was more concentrated.  It grew fastest in ZIP Codes in Brandon, Gibsonton, South Tampa, and South Plant City. There were also 5 ZIP Codes that saw estimated employment fall in the period 2015-2020:  33656 (in rural Keystone-Odessa), 33565 (in rural northeast Hillsborough County), 33567 (in rural eastern Hillsborough County), 33598 (in rural southern Hillsborough County), and 33620 (in the USF Area). Figure 2b shows that in 2020-2023 no ZIP Code saw decreases in employment.  Moreover, employment growth was less concentrated. It grew fastest in East Tampa, Temple Terrace, and South Plant City.

Table 2a.  10 Hillsborough County ZIP Codes with Highest 2020-2023 Growth in Jobs Sites

Zip Code20102015202020232010-2015 Percent Change2015-2020 Percent Change2020-2023 Percent Change2015-2023 Percent Change
335481421441551651.41%7.64%6.45%14.58%
335663773864214502.39%9.07%6.89%16.58%
335691161271471609.48%15.75%8.84%25.98%
335721091161281416.42%10.34%10.16%21.55%
335731181241461545.08%17.74%5.48%24.19%
3357834439543945914.83%11.14%4.56%16.20%
33579921011291379.78%27.72%6.20%35.64%
336059169259441,0120.98%2.05%7.20%9.41%
336109529771,0081,2302.63%3.17%22.02%25.90%
33635709412413234.29%31.91%6.45%40.43%
This table shows the number of job sites for the 10 ZIP Codes with fastest employment growth. It shows data for the years 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2023. It also shows the growth in job sites for the periods: 2010-2015, 2015-2020, 2020-2023, and 2015-2023. All jurisdictions saw an increase in job sites. Nonetheless, their 2020-2023 growth rate was lower than their 2015-2020 growth rate.

Source:  Commercial parcel data from Hillsborough County Property Appraiser (Accessed:  June 10, 2024). Data processing by Plan Hillsborough.

Table 2b.  10 Hillsborough County ZIP Codes with Highest 2020-2023 Growth in Job Sites’ Heated Area (millions of square feet)

Zip Code20102015202020232010-2015 Percent Change2015-2020 Percent Change2020-2023 Percent Change2015-2023 Percent Change
335481.291.301.581.670.71%21.57%5.47%28.22%
335590.160.170.190.253.47%9.95%34.08%47.43%
335667.658.1911.8516.377.14%44.64%38.17%99.85%
335703.444.554.835.7032.48%6.01%18.13%25.23%
335721.681.742.082.643.36%19.92%26.98%52.27%
335787.568.3010.3610.929.82%24.83%5.43%31.61%
3360216.3616.4617.6418.890.62%7.13%7.08%14.71%
336033.683.743.864.081.72%3.04%5.66%8.87%
3361024.2724.6126.3227.571.37%6.98%4.75%12.07%
336375.765.956.439.633.26%8.02%49.79%61.80%

Source:  Commercial parcel data from Hillsborough County Property Appraiser (Accessed:  June 10, 2024). Data processing by Plan Hillsborough.

Table 2c.  10 Hillsborough County ZIP Codes with Highest 2020-2023 Growth in Employment

Zip Code20102015202020232010-2015 Percent Change2015-2020 Percent Change2020-2023 Percent Change2015-2023 Percent Change
3355936741043881711.76%6.70%86.78%99.30%
335668,1149,26111,81315,46714.14%27.56%30.93%67.02%
335692,9753,6234,5245,51821.78%24.88%21.99%52.33%
335706,2897,3998,44610,09717.65%14.16%19.55%36.47%
335723,7314,2604,9776,11714.18%16.83%22.91%43.59%
335963,2093,7384,8165,75216.50%28.84%19.44%53.88%
3360246,14452,21959,61272,99113.17%14.16%22.44%39.78%
3360755,48764,77776,15991,05916.74%17.57%19.56%40.57%
3361037,05942,90048,16762,04415.76%12.28%28.81%44.63%
3363715,22318,09219,89524,30718.85%9.97%22.18%34.36%

Note:  Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Excel Files. QCEW NAICS-Based Data Files (1975 – most recent). Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/cew/downloadable-data-files.htm. Employment by sector for the years 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2023. Bureau of Economic Analysis – Employment by County, Metro, and Other Areas.  Link:  https://apps.bea.gov/regional/downloadzip.cfm. 2010-2023 countywide employment distributed to commercial parcels using share of heated area. For example, if a light commercial parcel has 25% of the heated area for all light commercial parcels in the county, it will get 25% of the estimated countywide light commercial employment.

Figure 2a. 2015-2020 Percent Change in Employment by ZIP Code

This map shows 2015-2020 employment growth by ZIP Code in Hillsborough County. The fastest growing ZIP Codes were 33621 (MacDill AFB) and 33579 (in Riverview). There were also 5 ZIP Codes that saw estimated employment fall in the period 2015-2020: 33656 (in rural Keystone-Odessa), 33565 (in rural northeast Hillsborough County), 33567 (in rural eastern Hillsborough County), 33598 (in rural southern Hillsborough County), and 33620 (in the USF Area).
This map shows 2015-2020 employment growth by ZIP Code in Hillsborough County. The fastest growing ZIP Codes were 33621 (MacDill AFB) and 33579 (in Riverview). There were also 5 ZIP Codes that saw estimated employment fall in the period 2015-2020: 33656 (in rural Keystone-Odessa), 33565 (in rural northeast Hillsborough County), 33567 (in rural eastern Hillsborough County), 33598 (in rural southern Hillsborough County), and 33620 (in the USF Area).

Figure 2a. 2020-2023 Percent Change in Employment by ZIP Code

This map shows 2020-2023 employment growth by ZIP Code in Hillsborough County. The fastest growing ZIP Codes were 33559 (Lutz), 33610 (East Tampa), and 33566 (South Plant City). In 2020-2023, no ZIP Codes saw a decline in employment.
This map shows 2020-2023 employment growth by ZIP Code in Hillsborough County. The fastest growing ZIP Codes were 33559 (Lutz), 33610 (East Tampa), and 33566 (South Plant City). In 2020-2023, no ZIP Codes saw a decline in employment.

To conclude, staff developed a methodology to generate small area estimates. The resulting small area employment data provide us with invaluable insight at a hyperlocal level. More specifically, all four Hillsborough County’s jurisdictions grew faster in the period 2020-2023 than in the period 2015-2020, though Plant City and Temple Terrace edged passed Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County. Still, Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County host the largest shares of existing jobs and attract the largest share of new jobs. At the ZIP Code level, 75% of ZIP Codes grew fastest in the period 2020-2023 vs 2015-2020. In the period 2020-2023, no ZIP Code saw decline in jobs. Lastly, job growth appears to have been more diffused around the county when compared to the period 2015-2020.

[i] Countywide employment data is available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis by County by business establishment type (NAICS). We paired each NAICS to an existing commercial land use. Within each commercial land use group, each parcel is assigned a shared of employment based on its share of heated area within its land use group. Thus, if a parcel represents 10% of the countywide light industrial commercial heated area, it gets 10% of the countywide light industrial employment.

[ii] Countywide employment totals include employment associated with MacDill AFB.  Thus, these countywide totals may differ from totals reported by BLS and BEA.

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