New homes vs. Newcomers: Is Hillsborough Building Enough?
Published July 25, 2024
Contact
Yassert A. Gonzalez – Manager – Economics, Demographics & Research – 813-582-7356 (o) – [email protected] – planhillsborough.org
Last updated August 22, 2024
Back in March, we reported that Hillsborough County had issued the fewest number of building permits since 2019[i]. Moreover, Hillsborough County is now the second largest issuer of building permits in the Tampa Bay Region[ii]. Thus, a logical question to ask: How does the number of new homes compare to new families moving to Hillsborough and other counties in the Tampa Bay Region?
To answer this question, we compared new homes added the Property Appraiser Tax Rolls[iii][iv] vs. new families moving here from somewhere else (henceforth, newcomer households). We estimated newcomer households using BEBR data[v]. Then, we compared the two for three time periods: 2010-2014, 2015-2019, and 2020-2023. We wanted to know in which of these periods the number of homes added to the tax rolls equaled or exceeded the number of newcomer households.
Hillsborough County and Jurisdictions
Countywide, new homes added to the tax rolls were lower than newcomer households for the periods 2010-2014 (27,277 new homes vs. 41,175 newcomer households) and 2015-2019 (49,068 new homes vs. 55,853 newcomer households). All things being equal, one would expect that a significant number of newcomer households could not get a brand-new home even if they wanted one. Thus, competition for existing homes intensified and prices were pushed even higher. At the jurisdiction level, Plant City, Temple Terrace, and Unincorporated Hillsborough County also added significantly less new homes to the tax rolls than the newcomer households. Alternatively, for periods 2010-2014 and 2015-2019, Tampa had the highest number of new homes added to the tax rolls when compared the newcomer households. In 2020-2023, the county added more housing units to the tax rolls than newcomer households. Unincorporated Hillsborough County had slightly less new homes added than newcomer households. The other three jurisdictions added significantly more new homes to the tax rolls than the newcomer households. Tampa and Temple Terrace added 3 times as many new homes to the tax rolls than newcomer households. See Tables 1a-1c and Figures 1a-1f for details.
This table shows newcomer households for jurisdictions within Hillsborough County, FL. There are three periods 2010-2014, 2015-2019, and 2020-2023. Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County consistently attract the most newcomer households.
Table 1b. New Homes Added to the Tax Rolls Within Hillsborough County and its Jurisdictions
Jurisdiction
2010-2014
2015-2019
2020-2023
Plant City
402
764
630
Tampa
6,476
13,495
12,745
Temple Terrace
71
307
511
Unincorporated Hillsborough County
20,328
34,502
29,932
Countywide
27,277
49,068
43,818
This table shows new homes added to the tax rolls for jurisdictions within Hillsborough County, FL. There are three periods 2010-2014, 2015-2019, and 2020-2023. Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County consistently add the most new homes to their tax rolls.
Table 1c. New Homes Added to the Tax Rolls as Share of Newcomer Households Within Hillsborough County and its Jurisdictions
Jurisdictions
2010-2014
2015-2019
2020-2023
Plant City
39%
56%
109%
Tampa
125%
92%
205%
Temple Terrace
14%
58%
198%
Unincorporated Hillsborough County
59%
88%
97%
Countywide
66%
88%
116%
This table shows new homes added to the tax rolls as share of newcomer households for jurisdictions within Hillsborough County, FL. There are three periods 2010-2014, 2015-2019, and 2020-2023. Tampa consistently has added the most new homes a share of newcomer households.
Figure 1a. Countywide – Newcomer Households vs New Homes Added to Tax Rolls
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for all of Hillsborough County.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 41K newcomer households vs. 27K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 56K newcomer households vs. 49K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 38K newcomer households vs. 44K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 1b. Plant City – Newcomer Households vs New Homes Added to Tax Rolls
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Plant City.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 1K newcomer households vs. 402 new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 1.4K newcomer households vs. 764 new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 577 newcomer households vs. 630 new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 1c. Tampa – Newcomer Households vs New Homes Added to Tax Rolls
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Tampa.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 5.2K newcomer households vs. 6.5K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 14.7K newcomer households vs. 13.4K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 6.2K newcomer households vs. 12.7K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 1d. Temple Terrace – Newcomer Households vs New Homes Added to Tax Rolls
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Temple Terrace.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 517 newcomer households vs. 71 new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 532 newcomer households vs. 307 new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 258 newcomer households vs. 511 new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 1e. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Newcomer Households vs New Homes Added to Tax Rolls
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Unincorporated Hillsborough County.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 34K newcomer households vs. 20K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 39K newcomer households vs. 34K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 31K newcomer households vs. 30K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 1f. Hillsborough County’s Jurisdictions – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls Shares of Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows new homes added to tax rolls as share of newcomer households for all Hillsborough County jurisdictions.
In the three periods (i.e., 2010-2014, 2015-2019, and 2020-2023), Tampa added more new homes to the tax rolls than newcomer households.
Tampa Bay Region Counties
Per usual, we would like to provide a regional and statewide context. Thus, we calculated shares for the 8 counties in the Tampa Bay Region (i.e., Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota). Except for Citrus[vi], we also used BEBR population estimates and household sizes to calculate newcomer households for the other 66 counties in Florida. Moreover, we used the 2023 parcel data from the Florida Geographic Data Library. As seen in Table 2a, in the period 2020-2022, Pasco and Polk have already surpassed the number of newcomer households from the previous two periods (i.e., 2010-204 and 2015-2019). Table 2b shows that, in the period 2020-2022, Citrus, Pasco, and Polk have added more new homes to their tax rolls than the previous two periods. In all counties, the number of new homes added to the tax roll is at least 78% of the newcomer households (Table 2c).
Table 2a. Tampa Bay Region Counties – Newcomer Households
This table shows newcomer households for the 8 counties in the Tampa Bay Region and Florida. There are three periods 2010-2014, 2015-2019, and 2020-2022. In the periods 2020-2022, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Polk attracted the most newcomer households.
Table 2b. Tampa Bay Region Counties – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls[viii]
This table shows new homes added to tax rolls for the 8 counties in the Tampa Bay Region and Florida. There are three periods 2010-2014, 2015-2019, and 2020-2022. In the periods 2020-2022, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Polk also added the most new homes to their tax rolls.
Table 2c. Tampa Bay Region Counties – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls as Share of Newcomer Households
County
2010-2014
2015-2019
2020-2022
Citrus
182%
84%
125%
Hernando
113%
79%
82%
Hillsborough
66%
88%
122%
Manatee
134%
106%
120%
Pasco
126%
103%
78%
Pinellas
112%
162%
108%
Polk
97%
98%
97%
Sarasota
134%
108%
124%
TB Region
91%
101%
104%
Florida
94%
95%
121%
This table shows newcomer households for the 8 counties in the Tampa Bay Region and Florida. There are three periods 2010-2014, 2015-2019, and 2020-2022. In the periods 2020-2022, new homes added to tax rolls as share of newcomer households ranged from 78% (Pasco) to 124% (Sarasota).
Figure 2a. Citrus County – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls vs. Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Citrus County.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 591 newcomer households vs. 1K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 3.9K newcomer households vs. 3.3K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 2.9K newcomer households vs. 3.6K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 2b. Hernando County – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls vs. Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Hernando County.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 1.3K newcomer households vs. 1.5K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 5.6K newcomer households vs. 4.4K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 4.6K newcomer households vs. 3.7K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 2c. Hillsborough County – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls vs. Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Hillsborough County.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 41K newcomer households vs. 27K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 56K newcomer households vs. 49K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 30K newcomer households vs. 36K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 2d. Manatee County – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls vs. Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Manatee County.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 8K newcomer households vs. 11K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 20K newcomer households vs. 21K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 15K newcomer households vs. 18K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 2e. Pasco County – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls vs. Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Pasco County.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 7K newcomer households vs. 9K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 19.7K newcomer households vs. 20.2K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 27K newcomer households vs. 21K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 2f. Pinellas County – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls vs. Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Pinellas County.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 6.7K newcomer households vs. 7.6K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 10K newcomer households vs. 16K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 8.4K newcomer households vs. 9K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 2g. Polk County – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls vs. Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Polk County.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 9.9K newcomer households vs. 9.5K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 25.8K newcomer households vs. 25.2K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 30.7K newcomer households vs. 29.6K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 2h. Sarasota County – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls vs. Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Sarasota County.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 4.6K newcomer households vs. 6.2K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 18.4K newcomer households vs. 19.8K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 12.4K newcomer households vs. 15.3K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 2i. Tampa Bay Region – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls vs. Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Tampa Bay Region Counties.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 79.4K newcomer households vs. 72.2K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 159.6K newcomer households vs. 162K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 130.4K newcomer households vs. 136.2K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 2j. Florida – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls vs. Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows newcomer households vs. new homes added to the tax rolls for Florida.
In the period 2010-2014, there were 331K newcomer households vs. 310K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2015-2019, there were 683K newcomer households vs. 646K new homes added to the tax rolls.
In the period 2020-2023, there were 434K newcomer households vs. 525K new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 2k. Tampa Bay Region Counties – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls as Share of Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows new homes added to tax rolls as share of newcomer households for the 8 counties in the Tampa Bay Region.
In period 2010-2014, the share averaged 121% and ranged from 66% (Hillsborough County) to 182% (Citrus County).
In period 2015-2019, the share averaged 103% and ranged from 79% (Hernando County) to 162% (Pinellas County).
In period 2020-2022, the share averaged 108% and ranged from 78% (Pasco County) to 125% (Citrus County).
Figure 2l. Hillsborough County, Tampa Bay Region, Florida – New Homes Added to Tax Rolls as Share of Newcomer Households
This bar chart shows new homes added to tax rolls as share of newcomer households for Hillsborough County, Tampa Bay Region and Florida.
In period 2010-2014…
Hillsborough County – 66%
Tampa Bay Region – 92%
Florida – 94%
In period 2015-2019…
Hillsborough County – 88%
Tampa Bay Region – 100%
Florida – 95%
In period 2020-2022…
Hillsborough County – 122%
Tampa Bay Region – 104%
Florida – 121%
Thematic Maps for Florida’s 67 Counties
Figure 3a. – 2010-2014 Newcomer Households by County
This map shows 2010-2014 newcomer households by Florida Counties. In the Tampa Bay Region, only Hillsborough County was in the 10 top counties with most newcomer households. In fact, in 2010-2014, Hillsborough County attracted the highest number of newcomer households (41K) than all other counties in Florida.
Figure 3b. – 2015-2019 Newcomer Households by County
This map shows 2015-2019 newcomer households by Florida Counties. In the Tampa Bay Region, only Hillsborough and Polk Counties were in the 10 top counties with most newcomer households. Orange County attracted the most newcomer households (61K). Hillsborough county attracted the second highest number of newcomer households (56K).
Figure 3c. – 2020-2022 Newcomer Households by County
This map shows 2020-2022 newcomer households by Florida Counties. In the Tampa Bay Region, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Polk Counties were in the 10 top counties with most newcomer households. In fact Polk County, attracted the highest number of newcomer households.
Hillsborough – 30K newcomer households
Pasco – 27K new comer households
Polk – 31K newcomer households
Figure 4a. – 2010-2014 New Homes Added to Tax Rolls by County
This map shows 2010-2014 new homes added to tax rolls by Florida Counties. In the Tampa Bay Region, Hillsborough and Manatee Counties were in the 10 top counties with most new homes added to tax rolls. Hillsborough County added the second highest number of new homes to the tax rolls (27K) behind Miami-Dade (33K).
Figure 4b. – 2015-2019 New Homes Added to Tax Rolls by County
This map shows 2015-2019 new homes added to tax rolls by Florida Counties. In the Tampa Bay Region, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Polk Counties were in the 10 top counties with most new homes added to tax rolls. Hillsborough added 49K new homes to the tax rolls. It was third behind Miami-Dade (74K) and Orange (52K).
Figure 4c. – 2020-2022 New Homes Added to Tax Rolls by County
This map shows 2020-2022 new homes added to tax rolls by Florida Counties. In the Tampa Bay Region, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, and Polk Counties were in the 10 top counties with most new homes added to tax rolls. Hillsborough added the second highest new homes to the tax rolls (36K) behind Miami-Dade (40K).
Figure 5a. – 2010-2014 New Homes Added to Tax Rolls as Share of Newcomer Households by County
This map shows 2010-2014 new homes added to tax rolls as share of newcomer households by Florida Counties. In the Tampa Bay Region, 6 of the 8 counties added more new homes to tax rolls than newcomer households. Top 10 counties with highest shares are located along the Gulf Coast. These counties host a large number of second homes.
Figure 5b. – 2015-2019 New Homes Added to Tax Rolls as Share of Newcomer Households by County
This map shows 2015-2019 new homes added to tax rolls as share of newcomer households by Florida Counties. In the Tampa Bay Region, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota Counties added more new homes to tax rolls than newcomer households. Top 10 counties with highest shares are located inland and along the Gulf Coast. Bay County, in the panhandle, added the most new homes to the tax rolls (19K). Jefferson county was a distant second with 453 new homes added to the tax rolls.
Figure 5c. – 2020-2022 New Homes Added to Tax Rolls as Share of Newcomer Households by County
This map shows 2020-2022 new homes added to tax rolls as share of newcomer households by Florida Counties. In the Tampa Bay Region, Citrus, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pinellas, and Sarasota Counties added more new homes to tax rolls than newcomer households. Their shares averaged 120% and ranged from 108% (Pinellas County) to125% (Citrus County). Top 10 counties with highest shares were all outside the Tampa Bay Region. Hardee, Holmes and Jefferson Counties at least 6 times more new homes than newcomer households.
Conclusion
Although the number of building permits issued have been trending down since 2019 in Hillsborough County, in the period 2020-2023, the number of new homes added to tax rolls was significantly higher than the number of newcomer households. The county added 5,912 more new homes to the tax rolls than newcomer households. Most of those additions were within the City of Tampa. In the period 2020-2023, Tampa added 12,745 new homes to tax rolls and attracted 6,204 newcomer households. Amongst the 8 Tampa Bay Region Counties, since 2010, Hillsborough County has consistently added the most new homes to the tax rolls and attracted the most newcomer households. In the period 2020-2022, Citrus, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pinellas, and Sarasota added more new homes to tax rolls than newcomer households. Statewide, new homes added to tax rolls have represented between 94% (2010-2014) and 121% (2020-2022) of newcomer households.
[iii] For Hillsborough County, we got tax rolls from the Hillsborough County Property Appraiser. Where applicable and necessary, we modified dwelling unit counts using outside sources (e.g., DBPR). For the other counties and the state, we obtained parcel polygons from Florida Geographic Data Library (Parcels_2023). Alas, these parcel polygons only include new parcels built through 2022.
[iv] We use actual year built to identify when homes were first added to the tax rolls. If a home has an actual (“ACT”) of 2023, it was assumed that it was added to the tax roll in 2023.
[v] Newcomer households are new households moving to a geographic area. They are the difference between BEBR annual estimates divided by the corresponding persons per household. For example, Hillsborough County attracted 96,661 new residents in the period 2020-2023 (1,541,531 persons in 2023 minus 1,444,870 in 2019). Using the Census 2020 persons per household of 2.55, we estimated 37,906 newcomer households for the period 2020-2023.
[viii] Calculated using Florida Parcel Data Statewide 2023. Florida Department of Revenue, County Property Appraisers, and the University of Florida GeoPlan Center. Publication Date: May 28, 2024. Link: https://fgdl.org/fgdlmap/
[ix] As of the time of this publication, the statewide parcel dataset available from the Florida Geographic Society only contains complete parcels sets through 2022. Thus, the analysis period is 2020-2022.
