By 2050, 91% of Unincorporated Hillsborough County’s Population Outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Every five years, Planning Commission staff conducts a collaborative exercise which results in new long-range forecasts. Land use planners from all jurisdictions were invited to comment on the initial draft. The final draft and all supporting documentation are found here: 2050 Long Range Growth Forecasts.  This is the eighth blog in this series.  To read previous blogs discussing other areas within Hillsborough County, kindly visit our Demographic and Economic Data Page. 

This month we are reviewing 2050 projections for the Coastal High Hazard Area (CHHA)[ii]. The CHHA comprises coastal lands that have a significantly higher probability of flood and wind damage during storm events due to their proximity to large bodies of water.  It is updated periodically and defined by statute. Moreover, local comprehensive plans contain policy language to help mitigate the overall hazard due to the potential of coastal flooding. As seen in Figure 1, these parcels are concentrated along Tampa Bay, the Hillsborough River, the Alafia River, and other large water bodies.

In terms of densities and intensities within CHHA, these projections were developed using publicly discussed and adopted future land use categories. Below, we will be reviewing projections for Unincorporated Hillsborough County’s planning areas partially within the CHHA. As seen in Figure 1, nine unincorporated planning areas have population and/or jobs inside the CHHA.

Figure 1. Tampa’s Planning Districts and Unincorporated Hillsborough Couty’s Planning Areas in relation to the Coastal High Hazard Area

Population Growth in the CHHA

In Unincorporated Hillsborough County (UHC), from 2010 to 2020, the population inside the CHHA grew to 88,226 people (10,097 new residents and 13% higher than 2010).  Currently, 9% of the UHC’s population lives inside the CHHA. Simultaneously, from 2010 to 2020, the UHC’s population outside the CHHA grew to 930,902 people (174,776 new residents or 23% higher than 2010). By 2050, we expect the UHC’s population inside the CHHA to reach 120,365 people (32,139 new residents or 36% higher than the 2020 population).  By 2050, the share of UHC’s population inside the CHHA is expected to remain at 9%.  From 2010 through 2020, the areas of Northwest Hillsborough and Ruskin inside the CHHA attracted the largest number of new residents moving to CHHA inside UHC (38% and 33% of all new residents to CHHA in UHC, respectively).  From 2020 through 2050, the areas in Apollo Beach and Ruskin inside the CHHA are expected to attract the largest number of new residents moving to the CHHA inside UHC (29% and 20% of all expected new residents to CHHA in UHC, respectively).  Simultaneously, the UHC’s population 2020-2050 percent growth outside the CHHA would be slightly higher.  By 2050, the UHC’s population outside the CHHA is expected to reach 1,292,534 people (174,776 new residents or 39% higher than the 2020 population). See Table 1, Figures 2a-2h.

Table 1.  Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Population Estimates and Projections Inside and Outside the CHHA

Unincorporated Planning Areas	2010	2015	2020	2050	2010-2020 New Residents	2010-2020 Percent Change	2020-2050 New Residents	2020-2050 Percent Change
Apollo Beach	10,050	11,254	11,393	20,571	1,343	13%	9,178	81%
Brandon	187	193	216	825	29	15%	609	282%
Gibsonton	4,819	5,084	4,882	10,539	63	1%	5,657	116%
Greater Palm River	3,300	3,441	4,072	8,699	773	23%	4,626	114%
Little Manatee South	1,149	1,180	1,058	1,697	-91	-8%	639	60%
Northwest Hillsborough	25,235	26,567	29,085	30,854	3,849	15%	1,770	6%
Riverview	2,255	2,314	2,508	4,763	253	11%	2,255	90%
Ruskin	5,224	5,604	8,550	14,881	3,327	64%	6,331	74%
Town and Country	25,910	26,508	26,462	27,535	552	2%	1,074	4%
UHC CHHA Total	78,128	82,148	88,226	120,365	10,097	13%	32,139	36%
Inside CHHA	78,128	82,148	88,226	120,365	10,097	13%	32,139	36%
Outside CHHA	756,127	822,859	930,902	1,292,534	174,776	23%	361,631	39%
UHC Total	834,255	905,007	1,019,128	1,412,898	184,873	22%	393,770	39%

Figure 2a. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Population inside and outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Figure 2b. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Share of Population inside and outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Figure 2c. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – New Residents inside and outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Figure 2d. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Share of New Residents inside and outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Figure 2e. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – New Residents Since 2010 inside and outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Figure 2f. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Share of New Residents Since 2010 inside and outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Figure 2g. Northwest Hillsborough County – New Population per Acre Through 2050

Figure 2h. South Central Hillsborough County – New Population per Acre Through 2050

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN THE CHHA

In Unincorporated Hillsborough County (UHC), from 2010 to 2020, employment inside the CHHA grew to 46,307 jobs (11,164 new jobs and 32% higher than 2010).  Currently, 10% of the UHC’s employment is located inside the CHHA. Simultaneously, from 2010 to 2020, the UHC’s employment outside the CHHA grew to 406,084 jobs (103,010 new jobs or 34% higher than 2010). By 2050, we expect the UHC’s employment inside the CHHA to reach 71,149 jobs (24,842 new jobs or 54% higher than the 2020 employment).  By 2050, the share of UHC’s employment inside the CHHA is expected to increase slightly to 11%.  From 2010 through 2020, the areas of Greater Palm River, Northwest Hillsborough, and Town ‘n’ Country inside the CHHA attracted the largest number of new jobs moving to CHHA inside UHC (27%, 25%, and 20% of all new jobs to CHHA in UHC, respectively).  From 2020 through 2050, the areas in Apollo Beach, Greater Palm River, and Northwest Hillsborough County inside the CHHA are expected to attract the largest number of new jobs moving to the CHHA inside UHC (15%, 28%, and 17% of all expected new jobs to CHHA in UHC, respectively).  Simultaneously, the UHC’s employment 2020-2050 percent growth outside the CHHA would be slightly lower.  By 2050, the UHC’s employment outside the CHHA is expected to reach 566,522 jobs (160,438 new jobs or 40% higher than the 2020 employment). See Table 2 and Figures 3a-3h.

Table 2.  Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Employment Estimates and Projections Inside and Outside the CHHA

Unincorporated Planning Areas in CHHA	2010	2015	2020	2050	2010-2020 New Employment	2010-2020 Percent Change	2020-2050 New Employment	2020-2050 Percent Change
Apollo Beach	1,752	1,936	2,448	6,144	696	40%	3,696	151%
Brandon	292	344	420	781	127	43%	361	86%
Gibsonton	4,395	4,977	5,725	8,852	1,331	30%	3,126	55%
Greater Palm River	7,690	8,900	10,717	17,614	3,027	39%	6,897	64%
Little Manatee South	64	65	59	474	-5	-7%	414	700%
Northwest Hillsborough	8,090	9,496	10,890	14,998	2,800	35%	4,108	38%
Riverview	611	683	811	1,782	200	33%	971	120%
Ruskin	2,896	3,342	3,692	6,122	796	27%	2,430	66%
Town and Country	9,354	10,782	11,545	14,384	2,191	23%	2,838	25%
UHC CHHA Total	35,143	40,524	46,307	71,149	11,164	32%	24,842	54%
Inside CHHA	35,143	40,524	46,307	71,149	11,164	32%	24,842	54%
Outside CHHA	303,073	355,495	406,084	566,522	103,010	34%	160,438	40%
UHC Total	338,217	396,019	452,391	637,671	114,174	34%	185,280	41%

Figure 3a. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Employment inside and outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Figure 3b. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Share of Employment inside and outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Figure 3c. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – New Employment inside and outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Figure 3d. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Share of New Employment inside and outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Figure 3e. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – New Employment Since 2010 inside and outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Figure 3f. Unincorporated Hillsborough County – Share of New Employment inside and outside Coastal High Hazard Area

Figure 3g. Northwest Hillsborough – New Employment per Acre Through 2050

Figure 3h. South Central Hillsborough – New Employment per Acre Through 2050

Conclusion

To conclude, we presented population and employment projections within the Coastal High Hazard Area based on densities and intensities publicly discussed and adopted Future Land Use categories well before these projections were developed. Within Unincorporated Hillsborough County, 88,226 persons currently reside within the CHHA (7% of the UHC population).  By 2050, 120,365 persons will reside within the CHHA (36% higher than 2020 and 8% of the 2050 UHC population). In terms of jobs, there are 46,307 jobs within the CHHA.  They represent 1 in 10 jobs in UHC. By 2050, we are projecting 71,149 jobs within the CHHA (54% higher than 2020 or 11% of the 2050 UHC jobs). As suggested earlier, the increases in population and jobs we are seeing in the CHHA are largely due to the building out of areas that were previously planned for those populations and jobs.

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[ii] “The Coastal High Hazard Area is an area particularly vulnerable to the effects of coastal flooding from tropical storm events and is defined by section 163.3178(2)(h)9, Florida Statutes, as the area below the elevation of the category 1 storm surge line as established by a Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) computerized storm surge model.” Source: https://www.floridajobs.org/community-planning-and-development/programs/community-planning-table-of-contents/coastal-high-hazard-areas#:~:text=The%20Coastal%20High%20Hazard%20Area,and%20Overland%20Surges%20from%20Hurricanes